The headlining match for today (Day 9) is the night session face-off between Alexander Zverev and Holger Rune in the 4th round at Roland Garros. It is a battle between a great server/attacker and a great defender. The pair, surprisingly, have only met once in the past, which was in Munich 2022, when Rune beat the home favourite comprehensively, 6-2, 6-3.
However, Zverev was not the player he is today, coming into Roland Garros in the form of his life and as one of the favourites for the title. He is on a 9-match winning streak, including a title in Rome (Masters 1000 event on clay).
Zverev just won a 5-set marathon against the Dutch – Tallon Griekspoor, coming back from a 4-1 and double break down in the 5th set. Zverev’s game is highlighted by his much improved and potent serve which has paid dividends in the recent past. During his first-round match against Rafael Nadal, the German was red lining that serve with an average first-serve % of 77%, winning 72% of those points. As per the ATP website serve rankings for the past 52 weeks, Zverev has the second highest overall serve ranking on tour, just behind Hubert Hurkacz.
Also, he has the second highest first serve % on tour – 72.3% (effectively the highest as it is just behind Sebastien Baez – 72.4% who has a serve ranking of 50!).
Moreover, his forehand quality has improved significantly, adding more spin and accuracy (especially down-the-line) during his title run in Rome. Zverev loves the Parisian clay, reflected by his consistency in Paris. This will be his 7th consecutive 4th round appearance at Roland Garros and he has reached the semi-finals in the past 3 French Opens. This includes a retirement due to a terrible ankle injury in the semis in 2022 against Rafael Nadal, during one of the most exhilarating matches played at Roland Garros, where he was trailing 6-7 (8), 6-6 in over 3 hrs.
But Holger Rune loves the clay too. He has reached the quarterfinals in each of his main draw appearances in the last 2 years at Roland Garros, losing both times to the eventual finalist – Casper Ruud. Though compared to last year, he has not had the best clay season run-up to Roland Garros. But he has played into form during his first 3 rounds in Paris. He survived a scare in the second round against the Italian Flavio Cobolli where he staged a comeback from 5-0 down in the final set match tiebreak to win 10-7.
Rune’s game has variety, and he is good mover on the surface. However, he has the tendency to go into lockdown mode, defending from the back of the court to reduce his errors. The passive approach may not work well with Zverev, who has the ability to attack on both wings.
The conditions will play a significant role, as Zverev does not like playing in the cold conditions, one of the primary reasons why he struggles at the Munich Open. On the other hand, Rune is likely to handle the cold and damp conditions much better. The weather forecast indicates that the sun will be out today, which should favour Zverev more. Nevertheless, if Rune is able to neutralize Zverev’s serve and play more attacking while utilizing the full court, he has a good chance.
Whoever wins, we can expect some high-level tennis and drama at Philippe Chatrier. The best part is, I will be in the stands for this match and it will be my first ever live experience at the amazing Philippe Chatrier! :)
My prediction – Zverev in 4 sets.
