Just 12 men remain at the French Open, soon to be eight once the last round of 16 matches conclude on Monday. Who will come out on top?
Coming into the tournament, many were billing this as the most wide-open Grand Slam of the past two decades.
Novak Djokovic was looking vulnerable. Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev all had injury clouds over them. Rafael Nadal’s body was falling to pieces. And the rest? Well, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud had all consistently failed at the business end of Grand Slams in the past, and Holger Rune’s not ready, right?
Now that we’re seven days out from crowning a champion, the French Open is decidedly not looking like an open race. No unseeded players remain, and 11 of the top 13 men in the world are still alive.
With this said, who are the title favorites heading into the quarter-finals?
Will Djokovic add a 25th to his tally? Can Sinner win another in 2024? Is Alcaraz going to follow in Nadal’s footsteps? Here’s a look at the remainder of the field at the halfway point of Roland-Garros 2024.
The Favorites – Djokovic, Sinner and Alcaraz
Undeniably, these three are the heavy favorites to win the French Open this year. Here’s how online bookies have them ahead of the start of play on Monday:
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 2.87 | +187
- Jannik Sinner @ 4.00 | +300
- Novak Djokovic @ 4.00 | +300
Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz has a slight edge over both Djokovic and Sinner in the betting odds. Bottom line, this comes down to the fact that the Spaniard is a more natural clay player than his two big rivals.
If Alcaraz is to win Roland-Garros, he’ll need to go through Tsitsipas in his quarter-final, then most likely defeat Sinner in the semi-finals. In the final, chances are he’ll meet Djokovic; if not, it’ll likely be Zverev or Ruud.
It’s been business as usual so far this French Open for Alcaraz, with no real scares. He dropped a set to qualifier Jesper de Jong, but was never under threat, and has seen off JJ Wolf, Sebastian Korda and Felix Auger-Aliassime. His forehand is running hot again, and the Spaniard looks to be enjoying his tennis once more.
Jannik Sinner
The same can be said for Sinner. The Italian has shown now signs of the hip injury that threatened to keep him out of the French Open, winning all but his most recent match in straight sets. While he dropped the opening set to Corentin Moutet in the round of 16, he more than made up for the discrepancy by winning the next three with ease.
We believe both Sinner and Alcaraz will move through their quarter-finals with little issue. When they meet in the semi-finals, it’ll be a genuine coin toss. Their head-to-head sits at 4-4; Sinner has had the better year, but Alcaraz has the most recent win between the two (Indian Wells) and holds an edge on clay.
Novak Djokovic
On the other side of the draw, there’s the matter of Djokovic. He breezed through his first two matches, but was sorely tested in the third round. The top seed went the distance against Lorenzo Musetti, falling behind two sets to one before winning 10 of the last 11 games to claim victory at 3:07am.
For us, that was Djokovic’s most impressive performance since defeating Sinner at the Nitto ATP Finals late last year. He showed the kind of edge that has been missing so far in 2024.
With his competitive flare back, there’s little anyone can do against the 24-time Grand Slam champion. It’ll be interesting to see how he gets on in his next two matches–against Francisco Cerundolo and either Ruud or Taylor Fritz. If he can get through these unscathed, then he’ll be our favorite to beat whoever he comes up against in the semi-finals and final.
The Outside Chances – Zverev, Ruud and Tsitsipas
We’re with the bookies on this one, and think that one of Djokovic, Sinner or Alcaraz will win the French Open. If for some reason they don’t, here are the next three contenders likely to trouble them:
- Alexander Zverev @ 7.00 | +600
- Casper Ruud @ 11.00 | +1000
- Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 17.00 | +1600
Alexander Zverev
Seeded fourth, Zverev came to Paris in the best possible form: having won Rome. The German is back to his best after a horrific ankle injury suffered at this tournament two years ago. It took awhile, but his Rome result and return to the top five were the product of a long road back for the former world No 2.
We have Zverev as our fifth favorite to win the French Open, behind the three above and Tsitsipas. The 27-year-old is solid, but faces a very tough path–a round of 16 against Holger Rune, then a potential quarter-final against Medvedev and semi-final with Djokovic. By the time he reaches the last four, it’s unlikely he’ll have enough left in the tank to threaten.
Casper Ruud
Ruud’s had a great clay season so far, and has continued that here in Paris. The Norwegian has done well to navigate tricky matches against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (five sets) and Tomas Martin Etcheverry (four sets) en route to his round of 16 clash with Fritz.Â
To win the title, he’ll need to see off Fritz, then likely Djokovic, Zverev and Sinner or Alcaraz. While he’s solid, and in good form, it’s just a bit of a stretch. Sure, there’s a world where he could upset an out-of-sorts Djokovic, but could he then back it up with another two top five wins? Unlikely.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
If you’re going to bet on someone who isn’t Alcaraz, Djokovic or Sinner, this is your guy.
Last year wasn’t Tsitsipas’ year, but in 2024, it seems the Greek is back. He’s a little older, a bit wiser and more mature. And it looks good on him. Another Masters 1000 title and a final in Barcelona have been the highlights of his clay season this year, while he’s been largely untroubled through his first four matches in Paris.
Bookies are giving Tsitsipas such long odds because in the quarter-finals, he comes up against Alcaraz, a man against whom he holds a 0-5 head-to-head record. Chances are, that becomes 0-6. However, there’s also a world where Alcaraz gets a little too comfortable, and Tsitsipas gets him.
Then, he’d likely face Sinner–a player he beat last month. Providing Djokovic was to get upset en route to the final, Tsitsipas could well come up against either Zverev or Ruud in the championship match, two players he’s had success against in the past. It’s an outside chance, but at least there’s a chance.
The Long Shots – Medvedev and Rune
Moving away from the title contenders and onto the real long shots, here are the two players who we still say have a realistic chance of winning the title, even if it is slim:
- Daniil Medvedev @ 26.00 | +2500
- Holger Rune @ 34.00 | +3300
Since it’s unlikely either of these two are around in a few days, we won’t go into too much detail here. All we will say is that Medvedev is the only Grand Slam champion remaining in the draw outside of Djokovic, Sinner and Alcaraz. While he says he’s no good on clay, he does have a Masters 1000 title on the surface.
For Rune, there’s no denying the kid’s talent. He was once spoken about in the same breath as Alcaraz and Sinner. Sure, he’s not racked up the same results as they have over the last two years, and has lacked consistency. But remember, in 2022 he defeated not one, not two, but five top 10 players in a row to lift the trophy at the Paris Masters.Â
The potential is there, all that’s needed is for it to spark into life again and we’d see one of these two make a shock run to the title.
The Absolute Dark Horses – Dimitrov, Fritz, Cerundolo, De Minaur
Four players remain in the Roland-Garros draws that we say have slim to no chance of coming away with the title:
- Grigor Dimitrov @ 41.00 | +4000
- Taylor Fritz @ 101.00 | +10000
- Alex de Minaur @ 126.00 | +12500
- Francisco Cerundolo @ 126.00 | +12500
Bookies would disagree with us here, and say that Dimitrov is more of a long shot than an absolute dark horse. However, considering this is the Bulgarian’s deepest ever run at the French Open already, and the fact that clay is his worst surface, we don’t give him much of a shot here.
For Fritz and De Minaur, they’re two players who have a solid top 10 level on hard courts, but struggle on clay. They’ve done well to make it this far, but it would be a surprise to see them make the final four, let alone lift the silverware.
Cerundolo, on the other hand, is making a career-best run here, having only ever made the round of 16 once before in a major. Any further than the quarter-finals for the Argentinian would be a huge shock.
Who do you think prevails here in Paris? Agree with our assessment of the favorites? Find out more on how to place bets on tennis and make sure to let us know your predictions in the comments below.
