Zverev vs Rune Prediction: Who Wants It More?

by Bren Gray
zverev rome

It’s the second week of the French Open, and you know what that means. It’s business time. Seeds will collide over the coming days as we whittle our way down from the 16 remaining players to just one champion. Two of those clashing on Monday are fourth seed Alexander Zverev and 13th seed Holger Rune.

Can Rune gain just his second top 10 win at Grand Slams and send Zverev home? Or will the German continue his return to form and book a spot in the quarter-finals? Read on for our Zverev vs Rune prediction, where we answer these questions and break down the best bets to make on this clash.

Alexander Zverev: A True Member of the Top Five

It’s been a challenging two years for Zverev. This time two years ago–almost to the day–the German suffered a horrific ankle injury in the semi-finals of Roland-Garros. The fall saw him wheeled off the court, and meant Zverev lost the better part of a year.

Now, the world No 4 is well and truly back to his best. Over the past two Grand Slams, Zverev has defeated the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. His resolute baseline play and grinding, physical game have solidly placed the 27-year-old as a member of the world’s top five once again.

Zverev had the perfect warm up for Paris, winning his sixth Masters 1000 title in Rome. While it wasn’t the toughest path (wins over Taylor Fritz, Alejandro Tabilo and Nicolas Jarry, the German has carried on his momentum here at Roland-Garros. He’s now on a nine-match winning streak, having seen off Rafael Nadal, David Goffin and Tallon Griekspoor–albeit, with quite a test from Griekspoor, who took him to a match tiebreak.

The former world No 2 will be licking his lips at the prospect of meeting Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals and gaining revenge for his five-set loss in Melbourne this year. To do so, however, he’ll have to get past an in-form Rune.

Holger Rune: Finding Form at Just the Right Time

holger rune

No one argues with the fact that Holger Rune has potential. However, he’s perhaps one of the most up and down players on the ATP Tour. He can go from defeating five top 10 players in a row (Paris 2022) to losing five-plus matches in a row (post-French Open 2022 and post-Wimbledon 2023).

So far this year, he’s been hit and miss. The Dane is at 19-11, having made quarter-finals in Monte-Carlo and Indian Wells, semi-finals of Acapulco and Montpellier, and a final in Brisbane. With the changes to his coaching team now seemingly settled, Rune is rounding into form at just the right time here in Roland-Garros.

The past two years, there has been expectation for Rune to perform in Paris. Now, with the 21-year-old slipping out of the top 10 and consistently being inconsistent, there’s far less noise around him. And that seems to be doing him good.

Rune began his French Open campaign with a routine victory over Britain’s Dan Evans, then most recently, saw off Slovak Jozef Kovalik in three as well. Between, Rune was taken the distance by Italy’s Flavio Cobolli, showing great steel to come back from 5-0 down in the match tiebreak.

The former No 4 has nothing to lose this week, and seems to be playing his best version of tennis. Are we about to see Rune burst back onto the scene?

Stats That Matter

Ahead of our Zverev vs Rune prediction, here are a few stats we considered:

  • Rune is 1-6 against top 10 players in Grand Slams
  • Zverev has made the quarter-finals or better in 10 of his last 17 Grand Slams
  • Of the 10 losses Rune has had in Grand Slams, he’s won at least a set in seven of them
  • Zverev has beaten Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner twice in Grand Slams
  • The pair have met just once on the ATP Tour, with Rune winning 6-3, 6-2 on clay in 2022

Our Zverev vs Rune Prediction

Set your alarms–this is going to be a good one. Both men will desperately want to advance to the quarter-finals here: Zverev because he’ll feel he has a good chance of winning his first Grand Slam, and Rune because he loves to prove critics wrong.

We predict this will be a match with some ebb and flow. Bottom line though, we can’t see Rune consistently getting past the defense and brilliant serving of Zverev. We’re picking the German to win, but don’t be surprised if this one has a few twists and turns.

Check out our top betting sites for tennis if you want to get a bet in, here’s our bets for this clash.

Best Bets to Make on Zverev vs Rune

  • Rune to win a set 1.33 | -300
  • Total games over 39.5 @ 2.00 | +100
  • Zverev to win 3-1 @ 3.60 | +260

Agree? Disagree? Got a hot take? Let us know in the comments below!

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