In less than three months, the world’s eight best tennis players will gather in Turin for the Nitto ATP Finals. While there’s still plenty of tennis to be played between now and then, the Race to Turin is heading up as we head towards the year’s final Grand Slam.
Who’s qualified already? Who’s in the box seat to make it? Who’s in danger of missing out? Below is all you need to know about the Race to Turin in 2024, including how qualification works, an update on the latest points and our predictions of who will make the cut this year.
How the Race to Turin Works
Before we dive into the Race to Turin any further, a quick refresher of how it works.
The Race is a measure of how players are going in one particular season. While the ATP Rankings tracks a player’s 52-week points, the Race is just about the calendar year. So, it is a better measure of form than the rankings.
Those ranked 1-7 in the Race will gain a spot at the Nitto ATP Finals, held in Turin in mid-November. The eighth place is reserved for a Grand Slam winner ranked 9-20th in the Race–if there isn’t any, then it will be awarded to the player ranked No 8 in the Race.
These players then compete in a round robin format split into two groups, followed by semi-finals and finals. It’s the biggest event outside of Grand Slams, with 1500 points on the line for an undefeated winner.
Updated Race to Turin Standings
As of 21 August, here’s how the Race to Turin is shaping up
- Jannik Sinner – 7,000 points (qualified)
- Carlos Alcaraz – 5,960 points
- Alexander Zverev – 5,717 points
- Daniil Medvedev – 4,020 points
- Casper Ruud – 3,595 points
- Andrey Rublev – 3,280 points
- Novak Djokovic – 3,160 points
- Alex de Minaur – 2,905 points
If the season were to end now, these would be the players fighting it out in Turin. However, there’s also a healthy chasing pack who have a strong chance of making a push over the next few months:
- Stefanos Tsitsipas – 2,725 points
- Taylor Fritz – 2,590 points
- Hubert Hurkacz – 2,540 points
- Tommy Paul – 2,535 points
- Grigor Dimitrov – 2,435 points
- Holger Rune – 2,175 points
- Lorenzo Musetti – 2,125 points
Beyond these players, there are another nine who sit between 1500 and 2000 points in the Race.
Our ATP Finals Predictions
Based on the current Race to Turin standings, here are a few predictions over the coming months:
Djokovic Could Struggle to Qualify
In recent years, Novak Djokovic has cut back his schedule and focused primarily on Grand Slams. This has meant that he has fewer opportunities to earn points, and hasn’t always led in the Race to Turin. However, his consistent ability to win Grand Slams has meant his place in Turin is secure, even if he doesn’t make the top eight.
This year, however, Djokovic is yet to win a slam. He’s sitting seventh in the Race right now, and will likely only be playing two or three more events in 2024 (the US Open, Shanghai Masters and possibly the Paris Masters). Should he fail to go deep in these events, then there’s a strong chance he won’t make the eight. This time, he won’t have a Grand Slam to bail him out.
Alcaraz, Zverev and Medvedev Are Virtually Guaranteed
The current cut-off mark to qualify for the year-end finals is 6,230 points. Any player that reaches this mark is guaranteed a spot in Turin, meaning that Sinner is already confirmed. However, we also believe that Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev are sure-things to be at the ATP Finals as well.
Both Alcaraz and Zverev are within touching distance of the 6,230 qualification mark. A run at any of the remaining ATP events will get them over the line; or, a handful of wins spread over tournaments.
Medvedev is a little further off on 4,020 points. However, hard courts are where he thrives, and we’re just about to enter 10 weeks of the surface. The Russian should grab some easy points and qualify without any issues.
Rune is a Strong Chance of Qualifying
Speaking of players who the rest of the tennis calendar favors, Holger Rune is well poised to string together some results over the next three months and qualify. He currently sits No 14 in the Race with 2,175 points, just 730 short of eighth place.
While 2024 has not been Rune’s finest year, the upcoming indoor hard court swing is by far the Dane’s strongest section of the season. Expect him to make several more deep runs and push for a spot in Turin.
Who do you think will make it to the final event of the 2024 tennis calendar? Let us know in the comments below!
