The North American hardcourt swing is well underway and very shortly all eyes will be on the US Open, the final Grand Slam of the year. It’s time to roll up our sleeves and get stuck into the latest men’s US Open odds. Who’s favorite to win the tournament?
Will it be Carlos Alcaraz, who has already bagged two of the three majors so far in 2024? Or world No 1 Jannik Sinner, who won his maiden Grand Slam to start the season? What about Novak Djokovic, can he further extend his record and claim a 25th slam in New York? Or, will someone else come out of the blue to throw a cat amongst the pigeons?
We dive into these questions and more in our full breakdown of the US Open favorites for 2024. Since we’re tennis nerds, we’ve gone ahead and broken down this year’s prospects into five different categories:
Read on to find out which players we’ve named in each category, why we’ve ranked them there, and how to get the most value out of betting on each of these US Open predictions.
Tier 1 – The Favorites
Our first tier is the outright favorites to win the US Open 2024. These are the guys who are genuine, red-hot chances of winning the title. If any of these players were crowned US Open champion, it would be no surprise.
Each have won Grand Slams before, hold strong track records on this surface, and are in form with big titles this year. These players also sit top in the US Open odds, with bookmakers agreeing they’re the most likely to win in New York.
Here are our three favorites to win the US Open:
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz leads the US Open betting odds at 2.37 (+137), and for good reason. The Spaniard is coming off a brilliant last 10 weeks, where he claimed the French Open and Wimbledon back-to-back, then chased it down with a silver medal at the Paris Olympics. Many believe Alcaraz will soon be no 1 in the world rankings again.
Alcaraz is 38-7 in 2024 with a title in Indian Wells to go with his two Grand Slams. He’s won 20 of his last 22 matches, and comes to New York as a defending semi-finalist. However, he knows what it’s like to lift the trophy in Flushing Meadows: this time two years ago, the US Open was where Alcaraz claimed the first of his four Grand Slams.
The 21-year-old will take some beating this year. His athleticism, all-court game and aggressive play are well suited to hard courts, and he’s in fantastic form, currently sitting No 2 in the Race to Turin.
Novak Djokovic
Sitting just behind Alcaraz in the odds is Novak Djokovic, returning 2.87 (+187) to win. The Serbian is a strange case coming into New York. A few weeks ago, he was having his worst season in almost two decades: no titles, a thrashing in the Wimbledon final, losses to the likes of Luca Nardi, Alejandro Tabilo and Tomas Machac. Throw in a knee injury, and it seemed Father Time was finally catching up to Djokovic.
That is, until he completely redeemed his season by putting together a complete performance at the Paris Olympics. The 37-year-old achieved what was his expressed goal at the start of the year, winning gold for the first time. He did so in emphatic fashion, not dropping a set all tournament and playing his best tennis of 2024 to reverse Wimbledon’s result and defeat Alcaraz in the final.
Coming into the US Open, what Djokovic will we see? The out of sorts version that has been on display the first seven months of the year, or the brilliant one that just won gold? How will his mindset be after achieving a lifelong goal? Will he play free tennis and defend his title, or lack motivation and bow out early?
Honestly: we have no idea. We’ll know in a few weeks though.
Jannik Sinner
Our final tier one favorite at the US Open this year is Jannik Sinner. The Italian currently sits No 1 in both the ATP rankings and the Race to Turin, and holds the third line of betting at most bookmakers, paying 3.25 (+225) to win the US Open.
Sinner had a brilliant start to this season, which came off the back of an impressive burst of form around this time last year. The 22-year-old went 25-1 across the first three months of 2024, picking up a maiden Grand Slam title in Melbourne, and adding trophies in Rotterdam and Miami too.
Since then, he’s continued to be strong – winning in Halle, making the semi-finals of the French Open and quarter-finals of Wimbledon – but has come off the boil somewhat. This has largely been due to health concerns (first, a hip injury, then tonsillitis).
The big question heading into New York is how he’ll be physically. He’s said his body feels good, but a loss to Andrey Rublev in Canada – where he was clearly nursing his hip area – was a bit of a concern. If he’s fit though, Sinner is a huge chance of winning his second Grand Slam at the US Open.
Tier 2 – The Contenders
If something happens to our three favorites, then our tier two players – the contenders – are the next best thing. These guys are rock-solid: regular members of the world’s top five, have made Grand Slam semi-finals this year, and have track records of going deep in New York.
If either of these contenders won the US Open, it would be an upset, but not a shock. They’re solidly in contention when it comes to the US Open betting odds, and have all either won Grand Slams, or have consistent records of performance at this level. All it takes is for a slip at the top, and these guys will get the job done.
Here are our tier two contenders at the US Open this year:
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev sits fourth among most good tennis bookmakers (6.00, +500), with the Russian winning the US Open in 2021. He has impressive hardcourt credentials: 19 titles and a 75.4% win rate. Last year, he made the final in New York, falling to Djokovic. That was his sixth Grand Slam final overall, three of which have been at the US Open.
The reason Medvedev isn’t a tier one favorite this year is his form has been a little patchy. He hasn’t won a title in over a year, with his last trophy coming in Rome 2023. His best results this year have been finals at the Australian Open and Indian Wells, plus a semi-final in Wimbledon. Recently, he’s struggled for momentum on clay and grass, his least-preferred surfaces.
However, Medvedev historically doesn’t stay down for long. Back in his happy hunting ground of New York, the 28-year-old will be ready and waiting to snaffle a second Grand Slam, should any of the favorites slip up.
Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev is another rock-solid player who is in contention this year. The German pays 17.00 (+1600) to win the US Open, a tournament where he has previously made the final in 2020. Overall, Zverev has been in two Grand Slam finals and six other semi-finals. This year, he’s made the last four in Melbourne, and the final of the French Open.
Recent weeks have seen Zverev struggle a little for form, with the 27-year-old looking lackluster on court. However, given his strong track record of raising his level at Grand Slams, we still have him as a genuine contender for the US Open 2024.
Tier 3 – The Chasing Pack
Our tier three players at the US Open is where things begin to open up a little. None of these players have won a Grand Slam yet. However, they are all in the top 10 (or thereabouts) of both the ATP rankings and the latest US Open odds.
Each of this ‘chasing pack’ should still be in contention come the second week in New York – they are regulars at this stage of majors. While anyone from this tier winning would be a surprise, it’s not unrealistic either. There’s a world where any one of these players wins the US Open next month, with a burst of form, a favorable draw, and a bit of luck.
Make sure to check out the live betting section of your bookie as well as the odds for these type of players will fluctuate a lot when the tournament starts. That’s something you might be able to take advantage of.
This is our chasing pack at the 2024 US Open:
Stefanos Tsitsipas
There will be some who argue against having Stefanos Tsitsipas this high in our US Open rankings, considering his recent coaching dramas and track record in New York. However, we say credit where credit is due.
Tsitsipas has been a regular threat at Grand Slams for the past five years – making a semi-final or better every year since 2019 – and we expect him to be in the mix at the US Open too. Bookies have him at 34.00 (+3300) to win.
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev comes to New York off the back of a strange year. He’s won a Masters 1000 title in Madrid, and made the final of another in Canada. However, he’s also been uncharacteristically inconsistent, with mental health issues plaguing his on-court temperament.
Bottom line though, the man has made 10 Grand Slam quarter-finals, and deserves to be considered part of the chasing pack. Tennis betting sites aren’t too high on his chances, however, with Cloudbet putting him at 51.00 (+5000) to win.
Casper Ruud
Former world No 2 Casper Ruud comes to New York with a 44-13 record in 2024, sitting fifth in the Race to Turin. He’s a former finalist at the US Open, playing the championship match in 2022.
Throw in two other finals at the French Open in recent years, and the Norwegian knows how to put together a Grand Slam run. Bookmakers have him in the sixth-equal line of betting at 34.00 (+3300) for a reason.
Hubert Hurkacz
The big-serving Hubert Hurkacz continues to impress, showing that he’s more than a one dimensional player. While he’s had a couple of injury scares in the last month, the Pole is a menace on hardcourts when he’s fit and his serve gets going.
Bookies don’t really rate his chances, putting him at 51.00 (+5000), but we say he deserves to be considered tier three, given he’s world No 7 and made the quarter-finals in Australia this year.
Taylor Fritz
Rounding out our third tier it’s the first American in our US Open favorites. Taylor Fritz has classically struggled at Grand Slams, but has turned that around, making the quarter-finals in three of the last four majors, including at last year’s US Open.
He’s 10th in the Race, 38-15 for the year with two titles, and is playing at home. No wonder he’s sixth-equal in the betting odds at 34.00 (+3300).
Tier 4 – The Dark Horses
Now we’re getting into interesting territory. Each of our dark horses have very long odds – 34.00 (+3300) and above – and would be major shocks if they won the US Open.
However, they’re dangerous players. They’ve either made deep runs in Grand Slams previously, but perhaps not for a while, or have shown form this year that makes us believe a run to the title in New York is within the realm of possibility.
These are our dark horses for the US Open 2024:
Nick Kyrgios
At his top level, Nick Kyrgios can beat the best in the game. We saw that when he was last fit and healthy, when he made the final of Wimbledon then backed that up with a quarter-final run at the US Open. Trouble is, that was two years ago, and he’s barely played any tennis since, with injury issues plaguing the Aussie.
Still, he’s making a return this month, and if anyone can pull something out of the bag, it’s Kyrgios – that’s why he’s a surprising sixth favorite in New York at 34.00 (+3300).
Matteo Berrettini
Matteo Berrettini has also struggled with injuries in recent years. However, the big-hitting Italian has returned to the ATP Tour with a hiss and a roar in the last three months, picking up three titles and rocketing his way back into the top 40. As a former Grand Slam finalist, he’s always a threat – though, hard courts aren’t his preferred surface. Bookies put him well behind in the US Open odds at 67.00 (+6600).
Sebastian Korda
Someone who does love the hard courts is American Sebastian Korda. The 24-year-old has a huge ceiling, with his top level easily putting him in the top 10 on this surface. However, he’s our only dark horse who’s never proved himself at the Grand Slam level. But, he’s made two finals and two semi-finals in his last five events, and could well be peaking at the perfect time. Korda pays 51.00 (+5000) to win in New York.
Ben Shelton
This time last year, Ben Shelton tore his way to the semi-finals of the US Open. Can he go two matches further this year? Bookies give him a decent chance at 41.00 (+4000). He’ll need to tighten up his game though, as he’s currently only No 20 in the Race to Turin, with his best Grand Slam result in 2024 being the round of 16.
Lorenzo Musetti
Rounding out our dark horse players for the US Open this year is Italian Lorenzo Musetti. Gosh, the 22-year-old has had a good last few weeks! We’re talking five sets with Djokovic at the French Open, semi-final in Stuttgart, final at Queen’s, semi-final of Wimbledon, final of Umag, and a bronze medal at the Olympics. Bookies are’t rating him (126.00, +12500), but given his form, we can’t not give him a mention as a dark horse.
Tier 5 – The Long Shots
Fancy making the kind of bet that could retire you to the Bahamas? This is it. Our long shots for the US Open have astronomical odds. We’re talking no less than 67.00 (+6600).
If any of these long shots one, it would define the entire tennis season. We’re talking ‘Emma Raducanu winning the 2021 US Open’ kind of territory.
But, there’s something there with each of these guys. Either it’s raw talent that’s unproven. Or a past big run at a smaller event. A recent upset of a big name. Something which could be the foreshadowing of a breakout performance.
These are our long shot players at this year’s US Open:
Jack Draper
Sharp-eyed tennis fans will know that Jack Draper has long been touted as a potential top 10 player. Brilliant movement, wonderful groundstrokes and athleticism, great weapons. We got a glimpse of this when he won his first title in Stuttgart this June, then defeated Alcaraz the next week. There’s a world where he puts it all together and storms to the US Open title–and it’s a world that would pay 67.00 (+6600) if that happens.
Arthur Fils
Young Frenchman Arthur Fils is another long shot with big weapons that can do damage when they run hot. Fils is yet to find consistency on the ATP Tour, but his top level is brilliant. He’s already bagged four good wins over top 10 players in his short career–players have won Grand Slams with less! Back him correctly, and bookies will pay you 81.00 (+8000) for your troubles.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Another French prospect is Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Simply put, his game is about one thing: the serve. The 21-year-old is only ranked No 48 in the world, but leads the ATP Tour in ace rate, with 20.3% of his serves going untouched. He stormed his way to the Wimbledon round of 16 behind this big weapon, and is at 101.00 (+10000) to pull off an incredible run in New York.
Jordan Thompson
Jordan Thompson is one of those rare players that has been a slow burn. At 30 years of age, the Aussie has just now cracked the world’s top 30. But boy, when he’s on, he’s on. Thompson consistently gets himself up for big matches, having defeated seven top 20 players in 2024. It would be unprecedented, but if you’re looking for a real long shot at the US Open, Thompson could be a go. You’d need to request odds at the bookies though, that’s how much of an underdog he is.
Alexei Popyrin
Last but not least, imagine the scenes if Alexei Popyrin – who just won his maiden Masters 1000 title in Montreal – backed that effort up with a US Open title? Improbable? Yes. Unlikely? For sure. Possible? Absolutely. He beat five top 20 players in a row to win in Montreal, three of which were in the top 10. With a big serve, brutal forehand and great movement, he’s a big threat at 101.00 (+10000).
We would love to hear your favorites and underdogs for this year, let us know below!
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