Roland Garros 2024 promises to be a barnstormer. The draw is out and the results of it add to the notion that this will be the most open Roland Garros since 2005 when a 19-year-old Rafael Nadal clinched his first of 14 French Open titles. The Spaniard himself faces an extremely tough task of recent Italian Open champion Alexander Zverev in the 1st round. Should have said spoiler alert before I mentioned it, but it is just too shocking a surprise to keep!
Defending champion Novak Djokovic has not met his usual elite heights in 2024 and is yet to win a tournament this year (for now) and there are big fitness concerns around Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Throw in the in-form “Now-Gen” Tsitsipas, Zverev and Ruud; it sets up the perfect storm.
The second grand slam of the year is on slow clay courts in the capital of France so expect lung busting rallies; a passionate tennis loving Parisian crowd and an elite level of competition. This is the marquee tournament of the clay court swing; it is a chance for grand slam glory, an opportunity to make history. 2000 points also awaits the winner in Paris. Let’s dive into the draw in detail along with some predictions for the French Open 2024.
Notable Omissions
Matteo Berrettini’s injury woes continue. The Italian was injured for his home tournament in Rome and has had to pull out in Paris too. Other notable absentees are Jiri Lehecka and Facundo Diaz Acosta; both could have caused some damage if fit.
Favourites
Novak Djokovic
The Serbian superstar had a phenomenal 2023; winning 3 out of the 4 grand slams and firmly cementing his place at the summit of men’s tennis. 2024 has been a different story. He has struggled to recapture the dominant form of last year and is yet to pick up a title; this has coincided with a major team re-shuffle which included parting ways with Ivanisevic. Could this have had an impact? Perhaps, but there have also been questions around a potential lack of motivation as he is now out in front in the grand slam race.
His 24 grand slam tally does not look to be threatened any time soon. There have also been questions on if age is finally catching up to the 37-year-old world Number 1. You read that right, world Number 1. I think it is fine to question Novak given his lack of form, but we must remember he is a different animal in best of 5. He lost to a very good Jannik Sinner in Australia (the Italian went on to take the title) at the semi-final stage and I predict it will take another very good showing from a top player to stop him.
Novak made the semi-finals of Monte Carlo (lost to Ruud in three sets) and the 2nd round in Rome (lost to Tabilo in straight sets); so, it has not been an ideal lead up. However, he made the decision to play Geneva (an ATP 250) the week before Roland Garros and it has turned out to be a good one in my opinion as he made the semi-finals; the Serb looked to be in better form and spirits. The extra match time he has secured could be the confidence boost he needs to increase his chances of defending his French Open Crown.
He has a wildcard in Herbert in the 1st Round and avoids Alcaraz and Sinner in his half; with a potential quarter final with Ruud awaiting. I don’t see Novak having any trouble up until at least the quarter final stage; the draw has fallen quite nicely for the Serb.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
The 2021 Roland Garros finalist has managed to re-kindle some of his best form in recent weeks. The Greek started the year with a string of underwhelming results, and this continued up until Monaco; where he captured his third Monte Carlo Masters title. He also made the final in Barcelona (lost to Ruud) and a quarter final in Rome (lost to Jarry). A shock opening round lost to Monteiro in Madrid took place as well, but I do not place too much emphasis on Madrid when talking about a player’s pedigree for Roland Garros. Madrid is a unique clay court tournament that plays quicker compared to other tournaments in the clay swing; primarily due to the high altitude.
Stefanos’ level has been high throughout the last few weeks, and it places him in a great place confidence wise as he goes into Roland Garros. His forehand has been firing and his serve seems to be back to its best. The slow clay courts mean he can run around his weaker backhand side more regularly. He also has more time to set up his one handed backhand in rallies and on return. His draw is not the easiest as he is seeded 9. He has a tricky 1st round opponent in Marton Fucsovics and a potential quarter final with Carlos Alcaraz. He also has Sinner in his half and in form Chileans Jarry and Tabilo. The Greek player may need to walk through fire to win in Paris; but will know this year’s edition is there for the taking; can he step up?
Alexander Zverev
The Big German has found his feet this clay swing. He recently won Rome, winning his second title there; he won his first 7 years ago in 2017. This consolidated his upward turn in form and ranking; he is seeded 4 at Roland Garros which means he could not meet Alcaraz, Sinner or Djokovic until the semi-finals at the earliest. It has been a steady 2024 for Sascha but he will be setting his sights on big titles. Like Tsitsipas he will know this grand slam is very open. There is one big issue though and his name is Rafael Nadal. Nadal is unseeded and was drawn vs Zverev in the 1st Round.
Zverev is the big favourite for that match despite Nadal being a 14-time Roland Garros champion; this is based on what has been an underwhelming comeback to the tour so far from the Spaniard. However, Sascha is known for starting slow in the first few matches of grand slams and has had to grind out 4 or 5 set wins in early rounds in the past. He will have to be sharp to beat Nadal to get the win. If he does get the win, the draw does open up after, but he will not look past the 1st round.
He has a potential quarter final against Daniil Medvedev which I think he would be favourite to win and that would line up a projected Djokovic clash in the semi-finals. This is a big opportunity for Zverev who comes into this grand slam in form; he would no doubt have been hoping for an easier draw but will know that a win over Nadal will not only send a message but boost his confidence even further to aid him in going deep in Paris.
Underdogs
Nicolas Jarry
The 6’6” Chilean had a poor start to the clay swing with opening round losses in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid but then found his feet in Rome as he made a big run to make the final. He eventually fell in two tight sets to Alexander Zverev but will take great confidence from that run. He played some fantastic tennis enroute to the final and notched up a win over Roland Garros contender Tsitsipas. Rome is a good indicator of level as its conditions are similar to those in Paris. Nicolas will feel confident in his level and faces Coretin Moutet in the 1st round. He should beat the Frenchman even though he will have the home crowd behind him in full force.
Alejandro Tabilo
Like his compatriot, Tabilo had an underwhelming start to the clay swing. He lost in the 2nd round to Casper Ruud in Monte Carlo and lost in the 1st round of Madrid to Cobolli. However, the Chilean entered a challenger in France and won the tournament beating some solid names to victory. The names included Gaston, Bagnis, Vacherto and Munar. Filled with confidence from his title win, the Chilean beat Djokovic on his way to a semi-final result in Rome. The left hander is in fine form and could prove an awkward opponent to face in Paris.
Rafael Nadal
Do I need to say anything? Ok, fine I will! It feels strange putting a 14-time Roland Garros winning legend in the underdog category, but I think it makes sense, right? Nadal has looked a shadow of himself in his comeback and expectations were low even before the draw of what he would be able to do in what is expected to be his last Roland Garros of his career.
Throw in a Zverev 1st round matchup, well understandably Nadal fans and the tennis world had their eyes popping out of their heads. When Nadal was picked out of the draw, it became clear he would either face Alcaraz or Zverev; I was in the minority that wanted Nadal vs Djokovic (if he were to draw a top seed). I want to see the two greats clash at least once more before one of them retires but it looks less and less likely as time goes on.
So, what chance does Nadal have? Well facing Nadal on Phillip Chartier at Roland Garros is said to be the ultimate challenge in tennis. Rafa has only lost 3 times at the French Open (he has a 97% win rate) and despite being a big underdog vs recent Rome champion Zverev; there is hope. Nadal’s level typically increases when at Roland Garros and he has even won the tournament in 2022 without feeling in his foot. Add to that Sascha’s regular slow starts in early rounds of grand slams; could we see Nadal pull off the win and make a fairytale run, even play Djokovic in a projected semi-final? My heart says yes but my cynical mind says no.
Notable 1st Round Matches
- Rafael Nadal vs Alexander Zverev
- Andy Murray vs Stan Wawrinka
- Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Marton Fuscovics
- Holger Rune vs Dan Evans
- Casper Ruud vs Jakub Mensik
- Arthur Fils vs Matteo Arnaldi
Projected Quarter Finals
- Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud
- Alexander Zverev vs Daniil Medvedev
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev
- Jannik Sinner vs Hubert Hurkacz
My Predictions
Quarter Finals:
- Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud
- Alexander Zverev vs Daniil Medvedev
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Nicolas Jarry vs Alejandro Tabilo
Semi Finals:
- Alexander Zverev vs Casper Ruud
- Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Nicolas Jarry
Final:
- Alexander Zverev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Winner:
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
