We are through one week of grass tennis at Wimbledon, or the SW19 as the Championships are called in Britain. And, especially on the women’s side of play, we have a ton of surprises that alter the draw and potential outcome significantly. Similar to our first look one week ago, let us investigate the current draw and top favorites.
Women’s upper half – the returning champ?
The women’s upper half is now the stronger part of the draw, and this is mainly due to the 2022 champion Elena Rybakina (image above) gaining steam. After struggling in the second round against Laura Siegemund, she seems on her way towards another Grand Slam. With the one to three seeds out of the draw, she is the remaining top favorite and has a lot of confidence on her side as the returning champion. She will face a tough test in Anna Kalinskaya though, who reached the Berlin final and seems to be having a good time alongside Jannik Sinner in any case.
The other players in this half include Jelena Ostapenko, who is always a player full of surprises and capable of beating everyone with her hit-or-miss tennis style. She is facing the woman, who beat Iga Swiatek, Julia Putintseva. Danielle Collins continues to be in fine form and also seems to be a threat for the title and will face Grand Slam champion Barbora Krejcikova. The half is rounded out by Elina Svitolina and Chinese No.2 Xinyu Wang, who both played three great rounds so far. So, while Rybakina seems like the biggest favorite, this half surely is put together well and could lead to a couple more surprises.
Women’s bottom half – wide open for anyone.
The lower half of course already has their quarterfinals set as of today, and it is full of surprises with Sabalenka withdrawing and Gauff out of the tournament for starters. The latter one was beat by fellow American Emma Navarro, who looked incredible in their matchup and has improved her stakes for the title. She will now face Italian Jasmine Paolini, who for one is not known to be a grass court specialist and two, has profited from the unfortunate retirement of Madison Keys. This quarterfinal seems to be Navarro’s to lose, but let’s not forget that it is her first appearance at this stage of a Grand Slam.
The other quarter is between two major surprises, both in their own respective way. Donna Vekic is back in another Grand Slam quarterfinal, and it seems like she also is back to her best tennis, but she hasn’t really faced a top player yet. And she will not face one in her match against Lulu Sun, at least on paper. The young player from New Zealand has not really appeared on the circuit before this year, but her tennis speaks out loud for herself. She beat Emma Raducanu in a tough match in Round four and will come into this with a lot of confidence.
So, I think the top half still belongs to Elena Rybakina, if she stays healthy and can play her best tennis. She is the clear-cut favorite, with Elina Svitolina as my dark horse from this half. As they will face potentially in quarters, I would expect a Rybakina vs Collins semifinal here. If she can keep up her tennis, Emma Navarro is the favorite from the bottom half to me. A semifinal between her and Lulu Sun would be fun to watch, with one surprise guest in a final guaranteed.
Men’s top half – Sincaraz loading
The men’s top half is shaping up to be the matchup we all hoped for – Jannik Sinner is on another flawless run towards the semifinal following his win over Shelton, where he could face his great rival, Carlos Alcaraz. He beat strong opponents such as Matteo Berrettini or Ben Shelton and looks in shape for his quarterfinal against Daniil Medvedev. The Russian No. 5 seed profited from Grigor Dimitrov’s injury in the prior round, but also seems to be under the radar for most fans and experts. He hardly gets mentioned as a threat, but we all know what he is capable of, so expect a tight match with a slight advantage for the World No. 1.
Alcaraz has had more work to do in his previous matches against Frances Tiafoe and Ugo Humbert, who both put up stunning performances against the Spaniard. He is not yet in the top shape that Sinner seems to be in, but if we remember his title tun last year, he kept on learning and improving as the tournament progressed. His opponent is ATP Queens champion Tommy Paul, who has found another gear on grass recently and will once more put Alcaraz to the test. Overall, we could be in for another SinCaraz semifinal, but expect Jannik Sinner to be the favorite on this surface.
Men’s lower half – knee braces all around
The bottom half of the men’s draw is still headlined by the G.O.A.T. Weeks ago, we all were wondering if Novak Djokovic would even be able to compete, now he is close to another Slam quarterfinal. The Serbian superstar looks to be close to his best, even while competing on a less-than-ideal knee, which is supported by a knee brace. He will play Holger Rune in the fourth round, who could very well be back with a big surprise. Mentioning knees – his expected quarterfinal opponent Hubert Hurkacz is out with a knee injury, leaving this quarter wide open for Arthur Fils or Alex DeMinaur. Both have played great tennis and face off against each other in a pretty open matchup.
The other quarter is also in the grip of a knee brace, the one of Alexander Zverev. He arguably produces his very best grass tennis so far, but a slip-up and knee injury from his match against Norrie might still be lingering and keep him handicapped. His opponent in round four is Taylor Fritz, the Eastbourne champion and decent grass court player. Whoever comes out from their match will be the favorite against Lorenzo Musetti, who beat Lucky Loser and serve extraordinaire Giovani Mpetshi-Perricard earlier today.
The story of this tournament is Sinner against Alcaraz, but if we come down to a Djokovic against Zverev semifinal in the bottom draw, this might be equally as thrilling. Djokovic is slightly handicapped, Zverev is on top of his grass power and comes in with confidence from his Paris final. So don’t be surprised if we see him making back-to-back Grand Slam final appearances and facing off the other next-gen star there.
My predictions – favorites going though
Semifinals:
Sinner vs Alcaraz // Zverev vs Djokovic
Collins vs Rybakina // Navarro vs Sun
Finals:
Sinner vs Zverev
Rybakina vs Navarro
