Every year, big names fall early at Grand Slams. Of the seeded players at Wimbledon 2024, the chances of all 32 safely navigating their way through the opening two rounds is slim to none.
So the big question is, who will it be? Which men’s seeds are most likely to fall early at this year’s Wimbledon? We’ve analyzed the draw, looking at the placement of each seed, their form, their game on grass, plus the match ups they might have to face early in the tournament.
Warning: some of the predictions we’ve got here are wild. But they’re not called upsets for no reason, so read on to see who we say is going to be packing their bags ahead of schedule at Wimbledon 2024.
Five men’s seeds on upset alert at Wimbledon 2024
These are the five men’s seeds we think have a chance of going home early in London this year.
- Ben Shelton (14)
In many ways, Ben Shelton has the perfect game for grass. The American has a whopping serve to pick up plenty of free points, plus the kind of natural athleticism that can lead to brilliant movement on the surface.
Thing is, grass hasn’t quite clicked for Shelton yet. He may be the No 14 seed here in Wimbledon, but he’s far from the 14th best player on the surface at the moment. The 21-year-old has played just 10 matches on grass in his professional career. Of those, he’s won just three, and lost seven.
This year, he’s really tried. Shelton entered three grass events, in Stuttgart, Queen’s and Mallorca. He lost all but one of his matches, falling to James Duckworth, Giovanni Mpethsi Perricard and Paul Jubb.
Either one of Matteo Bellucci (Shelton’s first-round opponent) or Alex Michelsen (his likely second-round foe) could take him out. It’s really not about who he plays, but more about how he’s playing.
- Jannik Sinner (1)
We did say we had some spicy predictions, and this is one of them: the No 1 seed Jannik Sinner falls early.
This is much more about who Sinner could play, than how he’s playing. The Italian is on track to clash with countryman Matteo Berrettini, a bonafide grass court specialist, in the second round of Wimbledon.
Berrettini is a former Wimbledon finalist, and holds a 41-11 win-loss record on grass. He’s won four titles on the surface, picking up Queen’s twice and Stuttgart twice. In 2022, the year after he made the final at Wimbledon, the Italian was a hot favorite heading into the tournament. He’d just won Stuttgart and Queen’s back-to-back, and was in impressive form–until he got Covid-19 and couldn’t play.
Since then, Berrettini has had some injury issues and hasn’t played a full roster. However, he’s back on tour now, and showing some promising signs, winning a title in Marrakech his first week back.
It would be a seismic shock to the tennis world if Sinner lost in the second round of Wimbledon. But history has shown us that when Berrettini is firing on all cylinders, it really doesn’t matter who’s standing on the other side of the net.
- Nicolas Jarry (19)
Chilean Nicolas Jarry is another seed whose game should be great on grass, but hasn’t made it click yet.
Jarry has a big serve and great hands at the net. However, his movement isn’t the same compared to other surfaces, as shown by his 8-10 career record on grass.
Two other red flags jump out regarding Jarry. Firstly, he’s lost his opening match of an event seven times already in 2024. This includes at both Grand Slam, and in four of his last five tournaments.
Secondly, he plays Denis Shapovalov in the first round. Shapovalov is a former Wimbledon semi-finalist, and made the round of 16 in London last year. The Canadian has been hit and miss in recent years thanks to injury and mindset issues. However, wins over Francis Tiafoe and Stefanos Tsitsipas this year show he’s certainly still capable of a high level.
- Sebastian Baez (18)
Some players simply aren’t good on grass, and Sebastian Baez is one of them. The Argentine is a brilliant clay courter who can hold his own on hard courts when he’s in form. Put him on the grass though, and his ranking on No 18 deceives.
Admittedly, Baez has only played nine professional matches on grass. Of these, he’s won just the three–never against a player ranked higher than No 68, however. He played earlier this month in Queen’s and lost first round, meaning he’s winless in the last month on the ATP Tour after his second round loss at the French Open.
Simply put, Baez is a walking upset at Wimbledon. He faces Brandon Nakashima in the first round, who already has seven grass wins this year (three of those at the Challenger level). The young American should be too much for Baez to handle. If he survives Nakashima somehow, there’s only more pain waiting in the second round, with the in-form Jordan Thompson a likely opponent.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (11)
Last but not least, the final big name we expect to see leaving early at this year’s Wimbledon is Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The former world No 3 is not particularly poor on grass as a whole. In fact, he has a title on the surface, winning in Mallorca two years ago. His overall record reads 21-17 on grass–a lower win percentage than clay and hard, but still respectable.
Trouble is, the Greek has consistently underperformed at Wimbledon specifically. Tsitsipas has never made the quarter-finals in London, despite making the quarters or better at the French Open earlier in the month on four occasions.
It seems that there’s something about the clay season that takes it out of Tsitsipas when it comes to competing at Wimbledon. Usually, it’s a big server that takes him out–he has losses to Chris Eubanks, Nick Kyrgios and John Isner here–but in this case, we say it’ll just be an out-and-out upset.
Tsitsipas faces Taro Daniel in the first round, and either Emil Ruusuvuori or Mackenzie McDonald in the second. Any of those three can bring a good level on their day and be capable of sending him home.
What upsets are you predicting early on at Wimbledon? Let us know in the comments below.
You’re on fire.