Home TournamentsGrand Slams Australian Open 2024 Predictions – Men’s

Australian Open 2024 Predictions – Men’s

by Jonas Eriksson

Here we go! The draws are out for the first Grand Slam of the year and here are our Australian Open 2024 Predictions.

We have the finished draw, and you can get a good overview on the official Australian Open website. If you’d like to place a bet on the Australian Open 2024, you can check out our Australian Open betting page.

Australian Open 2024 Predictions – Men’s Draw

There are some really exciting first-round matches in the Australian Open 2024 Men’s draw. Players like Djokovic, Berrettini, Tsitsipas, Wawrinka, and Murray stand out.

Quarter 1

Djokovic got a tricky opponent in the first round in Croatian teenager Dino Prizmic, whom we wrote about in our 2024 sponsorship changes post. It will be challenging in the sense that Prizmic has no scar tissue from losing to Djokovic in the past, but on the other hand, it is also a huge task to play Djokovic in a five-set match. However, I think he can maybe get a set and make it a little interesting for a while as he has nothing to lose.

One exciting match is Murray vs Etcheverry. Murray is a question mark for me this season. We all know what he can do, but his recent results haven’t been that promising. Etchverry recently changed his racquet from a Speed MP to a Yonex Percept, so I’m curious how this racquet change will affect him. He has had two hard-fought matches (losses) so far in 2024, but maybe he can turn it around against Andy. I think Etcheverry wins in four.

Mannarino vs Wawrinka is another great one. Mannarino is at his best level ever, while Wawrinka plays some great tennis but is more on-and-off. I think Mannarino will win this in four sets based partly on his 2-0 head-to-head, but also on being a permanently difficult opponent to face with his famously low string tension and tricky game.

Bautista Agut vs Ben Shelton is worth a bit of your time. Agut can play masterful defensive tennis at the highest level, but it feels like Shelton has too much power and momentum for him and I would say he wins in four.

The blockbuster match in this part of the draw is Berrettini vs Tsitsipas. Berrettini has been out due to injury for a long time. I remember him walking off and crying at the ATP 250 in Stuttgart last summer, and I haven’t seen much of him since then. But if he is healthy, it’s a nightmare draw for Tsitsipas on paper. However, when you look at the head-to-head, Tsitsipas has won all their encounters. Which is why I predict him to win in four sets.

Quarter-finalists: Djokovic vs Tsitsipas

Looking for a good betting bonus for Australian Open? Head over to
BetUS for a 125% match bonus + 30 Free Bets.
William Hill for €30 in free bets!
William Hill for up to €100 in bonus!
William Hill for €/$30 in free bets!

Quarter 2

In the second quarter of the Australian Open draw, we find players like Sinner, Rublev, Tiafoe, and Korda.

Sinner starts against van de Zandschulp, which shouldn’t cause him too many problems. Tiafoe vs Coric is a good match though that is very difficult to predict, I think Tiafoe will get through, but this is a little bit of an upset alert.

Another interesting match is De Minaur vs Raonic. De Minaur had a great start to the season, defeating Djokovic at the United Cuop as an example. Can he bring this form to the home slam? Raonic is a question mark. He is ranked around 300 in the world, but we do know he has a lot more game than that. I am sure he can steal a set from De Minaur, but it shouldn’t be enough.

Sebastian Korda is a player a lot of people hype up. He did reach the semi-finals in Adelaide but was destroyed by Jiri Lehecka 6-2 6-1. He is playing qualifier Vit Kopriva in the first round and I remember seeing Kopriva do some damage on the ATP tour a while back. I think this is a dangerous draw for Korda and I will throw in the upset alert here. Kopriva to win in 5.

Quarter-finalists: Sinner vs Rublev

Quarter 3

The third quarter of the Australian Open Draw has players like Rune, Fils, Safiullin, Shapovalov, Dimitrov, Thiem and Medvedev.

Arthur Fils ran into a player who likes to create upsets in Grand Slams: Jiri Vesely. If Vesely is feeling it, he can beat pretty much anyone, but I think Fils will get through in four sets.

No draw is easy in a Grand Slam, but getting a qualifier of David Goffin’s level in the first round is surely not on his wishlist. I think he will beat Goffin, but it might take five sets.

The blockbuster in this part of the draw is the Auger-Aliassime vs Thiem match. Predicting this match is difficult as both players have huge potential but are also remarkably uneven. Thiem won their only previous encounter in 2020, and I think he can win this match in five sets.

Another player that I’m curious to watch in this draw is Shapovalov. He is back from injury and gets Mensik in the first round. He should win that and then we will see if he can build momentum from that.

Quarter-finalists: Rune vs Medvedev

Quarter 4

Quarter 4 of the Australian Open has players like Zverev, Alcaraz, and Ruud. The way Zverev played at the United Cup makes me think he can win the event, but getting through players like Djokovic, Sinner, or Alcaraz might be too tough even though he seems in good form.

An exciting young player to watch is Alex Michelsen, who should be able to get through McCabe in the first round. There are no real blockbuster matches in this quarter, but a few players to keep your eyes on are in-form Jack Draper and Jiri Lehecka who had a great week before with a final against each other in Adelaide.

Alcaraz should have no real problems with Gasquet, but it will still be a fun watch. Dan Evans vs Sonego is another match I will keep my eye on.

Quarter-finalists: Zverev vs Alcaraz

Australian Open 2024 Men’s Quarter-finals Predictions

Based on the predictions above, we have these four men’s quarter-finals for the Australian Open 2024.

Djokovic vs Tsitsipas
Sinner vs Rublev
Rune vs Medvedev
Zverev vs Alcaraz

No matter if I try to look for upsets or someone doing a surprise run, I end up with these eight players. I think in-form players like Safiullin and Dimitrov could be among these eight, but at this point, I will go with the top seeds. I’m happily wrong, though.

Predicting the quarter-finals feels relatively straightforward. I don’t think anyone can beat Djokovic in five sets at the Australian Open (yet, maybe next year). And I think Alcaraz and Sinner have a better chance than Tsitsipas.

I might have said Rublev should go further than the quarters, but honestly, I don’t think he will beat Sinner. The Italian has shown clear progress in his game in 2023.

Medvedev vs Rune is the toughest prediction. It’s difficult to know Medvedev’s form, but he should be too crafty and experienced for Rune at this stage.

Zverev is always dangerous, but Alcaraz has a level more when needed and should be able to get through, but might be a five-setter.

This leads us to the semi-finals.

Djokovic vs Sinner
Medvedev vs Alcaraz

I know I hype up Sinner and I really believe in his game, but against Djokovic in Melbourne? No, not quite yet. Djokovic is too bloody good on these courts over five sets. Might go the distance though!

I know Medvedev can beat Alcaraz, we have seen that. But I think Alcaraz will enjoy the conditions in Melbourne and find a way in four sets.

This leads us to another blockbuster final between Djokovic and Alcaraz. Djokovic is the obvious favorite based on history and I think Alcaraz is not quite there to win at the Serb’s most successful Grand Slam.

Australian Open 2024 Winner: Novak Djokovic

So there you have it. I think Djokovic will win another slam here. I was going to say Sinner, but I still don’t see anyone beating Djokovic at the Australian Open this year. His wrist has been a little bit of an issue, but he has shown over and over again in the past that he can overcome the discomfort and still win five-set matches.

What do you think? Please share your thoughts in the comments.

You may also like

1 comment

Slick Rick January 15, 2024 - 00:43

Good post! I think on the mens side players who rely on big serve and forehand will struggle with these soft balls. Conditions are tailor made for Novak, Medvedev, Zverev with Sinner and Alcaraz challenging. Norrie and de Minaur can go deep with their game and fitness levels.

Agree, Rybakina has Sabalenka’s measure and will beat her in the final …looking forward to Osaka vs Garcia first round match up


Leave a Comment