Here are our Australian Open Predictions 2024 for the Women’s tournament. Can Swiatek get her first Australian Open title?
Let’s look at the Australian Open 2024 women’s draw, quarter by quarter, like we did on the men’s side.
Quarter 1
This part of the draw holds players like Swiatek, Azarenka, Ostapenko, Svitolina and Kerber.
On paper, Swiatek has a pretty rough draw. Being paired against 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin is tough. However, Swiatek is in great form as seen in the United Cup, while Kenin is ranked 38 these days and more of a question mark. Still, if Kenin gets going and starts feeling confident, she has a little chance to stir up trouble for the world number one. But I still don’t see Swiatek wavering. She is too strong and should motor through even tougher challenges like Kerber or Danielle Collins.
Elina Svitolina has played some great tennis lately and is a player to watch out for in this draw. Seeded 19, starting against a wild card, if she can string some wins together she can go far.
Jelena Ostapenko is another player that is difficult to predict. If she is feeling it, she can beat pretty much anyone. Definitely quarter-final potential.
Quarter-finalists: Swiatek vs Ostapenko
Quarter 2
The second quarter in the Australian Open women’s draw has some exciting players like Rybakina, Stephens, Kasatkina, Raducanu and Pegula to name a few.
Rybakina vs Pliskova is a bit of a blockbuster match. Rybakina seems to be in great form, winning the warm-up event by beating Sabalenka in the final 6-0 6-3. Pliskova is a dangerous player, but can she really threaten Rybakina at this type of form? My feeling is: no.
I think one player to keep your eyes on in this part of the draw is Katie Boulter, who really impressed the tennis world during the United Cup. If she can keep it up, she can beat anyone.
Talking about British players, I am also curious how Raducanu will do. I don’t think she has quarter-final potential this year, but the first round she will get through and then Boulter will be too difficult.
Quarter-finalists: Rybakina vs Pegula
Quarter 3
In quarter 3, we find players like Maria Sakkari, Caroline Wozniacki, Leylah Fernandez, Naomi Osaka, Caroline Garcia, and Coco Gauff. This is the most exciting quarter when you look at the players.
One match to watch is Beatriz Haddad Maia and Linda Fruhvirtova. Haddad Maia is a top-ten seed, but her form does not seem fantastic, and the Fruhvirtova sisters are very dangerous. I will put an upset alert on this one.
How can Naomi Osaka perform in the first grand slam back on the WTA Tour? Well, she did not get the nicest welcome in drawing Caroline Garcia, but if she can play anxiety-free, I think she can win that match.
Coco Gauff won her warm-up tournament and seems to have found a new confidence to her game, I predict her to reach the quarter-final and likely beat Osaka on her way there.
You never know with Maria Sakkari, but I am curious how her racquet switch to the Wilson Shift will affect her game. Her draw seems pretty decent, so I think she can reach the quarter-finals.
Quarter-finalists: Gauff vs Sakkari
Quarter 4
The fourth quarter holds players like Ons Jabeur, Aryna Sabalenka, Paola Badosa, and Mirra Andreeva.
Jabeur’s form doesn’t seem too strong and I don’t think she will defeat Andreeva in a potential second round. I believe that Andreeva is good enough despite her young age to reach the quarter-finals in this Australian Open. If she gets through Jabeur, her draw is pretty decent.
Paola Badosa is a question mark after her injury timeout, and Taylor Townsend is not an easy first-round opponent. That is a bit of an upset alert to me.
Can Brenda Fruhvirtova disturb Sabalenka in the second round? Yes, at least a bit, but not enough to win. I think Sabalenka is riding high in confidence from her win last year and will motor through the draw pretty reliably.
Quarter-finalists: Andreeva vs Sabalenka
Australian Open 2024 Quarter-final Predictions
I predict we will see these four quarter-final matches at this year’s Australian Open.
Swiatek vs Ostapenko
Rybakina vs Pegula
Gauff vs Sakkari
Andreeva vs Sabalenka
Nothing really shocking about these predictions, but Andreeva is a bit of a surprise perhaps.
I have bolded my semi-finalists. The four predicted semi-finalists are the best players in the world at the moment and just a cut above the rest for the time being.
This leads to these semi-finals:
Swiatek vs Rybakina
Gauff vs Sabalenka
These are very much coin-toss matches. If we look at the head-to-head of Rybakina and Swiatek, Rybakina has a 3-1 head-to-head and the only match she has lost against Iga is the Rome QF from last year where she had to pull out. Maybe Swiatek has made some changes to her game that will help in this match-up, but based on the stats you have to go with Rybakina here.
Gauff and Sabalenka have a more tightly contested head-to-head, which Gauff leads 4-2. But I still think Sabalenka at the Australian Open will be a force and will help her pull out the win.
Final: Sabalenka vs Rybakina
These are two heavy hitters were match-form seems to play the most prominent role. Sabalenka has a 5-3 h2h record, but I believe Rybakina’s win in Brisbane will tell more of the story here.
Women’s Australian Open winner: Elena Rybakina
