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Brisbane ATP Predictions

by Jonas Eriksson

Rafael Nadal starts his comeback campaign in Brisbane! Here are our Brisbane ATP Predictions for 2024. Who will win?

Before we get into the Brisbane ATP Predictions and have a look at the draw, let’s have a look at some tournament information.

Brisbane ATP 250

Draw sizes: 32 Singles, 24 doubles
Surface: Hard court
Prize money: $661,585
Official website

If you want to place a bet on the Brisbane tournament, check out our Brisbane International Betting and Odds page.

You can check out the full Brisbane international draw in pdf format. You can get an overview of the top 100 ATP rankings here.

22Bet offers good odds on Brisbane International, including live betting.
BetUS offers good odds on Brisbane International, including live betting.

Seeded players

RUNE, Holger (find out Holger Rune’s racquet)
KORDA, Sebastian
BAEZ, Sebastian
ETCHEVERRY, Tomas Martin

Prize money

WINNER $95,340
FINALIST $55,665


Brisbane ATP Predictions

As always, it is very difficult to predict the first events of the year because you have little background on how the players have performed during the off-season, how they feel, etc. There are many unknown factors.

First half

Besides, Rafael Nadal, I’m curious to see how Holger Rune starts his season with his new Avengers-style coaching team with Becker and Luthi. Max Purcell is more known for his doubles, but can be a tricky player to face in a first round. Our prediction is that Rune goes through in 3 sets.

Shevchenko vs Van Assche is an interesting battle of young, up-and-coming players. It’s the first time they meet, and the logical prediction is that the more experienced and better-ranked Shevchenko wins in straight sets.

JJ Wolf is always fun to watch and should beat a qualifier.

There should be many curious eyes on Sebastian Korda in 2024. He is one of the more hyped-up players in recent times and coaching Rick Macci talks about him warmly in several of our podcasts. However, there are still question marks about how far he can take his seemingly large potential. Hanfmann will be a test, but our prediction is that Korda will come through in 3 sets.

Talking about hyped-up Americans, Ben Shelton is another player to watch. His explosive game brought the attention of most tennis fans last year. Can he keep it up? He plays another in-form player in Roman Safiullin in the first round. That’s a tough first round. I predict Safiullin will win this match in 3 sets.

Popyrin is another player you can expect more from overall. He should be a strong favorite to defeat O’Connell and we predict he will do so in straight sets.

Arnaldi vs Fuscovics is an exciting encounter. Matteo Arnaldi is an up-and-coming player who impressed on and off during 2023, and Fucsovics is one of the more solid top 50 players in the world. Based on how hard “Fucso” is to beat I predict him to win in three sets.

We believe Sebastian Baez should be able to beat a qualifier, but difficult to predict when you don’t have the name.

Who gets to the final in the first half? We predict Rune to have a stellar season, and it starts in Brisbane.

Second half of the draw

Aslan Karatsev (also known as Calvesatsev) is a complicated player to predict. When he is feeling it, he can beat anyone. But when he is not feeling it, he can encounter some depressing periods of play. He should beat Kubler in straight sets, though.

Then we get to the legend, Rafael Nadal. The first tournament in a year after injury and surgery. He starts against a qualifier, but that does not mean it’s an easy start. We have both Dominic Thiem and Diego Schwartzman playing quallies in Brisbane, so there are no easy matches on this level. But this is Rafa Nadal. He will get a win in his first match back, but it might take three sets.

Thompson vs Vukic. Difficult match to predict. They have played a Challenger match in 2018, which Thompson won in straight sets, but Vukic is a better player now. Still, Thompson is the more experienced and should win this one.

Ugo Humbert is playing a qualifier so it’s difficult to say, but I have a feeling he will have a good year and a good start to it. I predict a win for Humbert.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry is another player facing a qualifier. Tough to say until we know who it is.

How good will Thanasi Kokkinakis be in 2024? He started 2022 with a title and reached a semi the following year in his home tournament in Adelaide, but the rest of the season was up and down. I think he will beat wild card Hijikata in three sets, but don’t have huge hopes for him for 2024 overall.

Daniel Altmaier is always fun to watch, but difficult to predict his first match against a qualifier.

Last but not least, we have two “veterans” in Dimitrov vs Murray. Murray has the head-to-head 8-4, but Dimitrov won their last encounter in the US Open in straight sets. Looking at their different 2023 seasons, Dimitrov is the more in-form player, but you can, of course, never count out sir Andy. Let’s say Dimitrov in three sets.

From the second half, let’s go for Nadal as a finalist. It’s a TALL ask for a player who has been out this long, but if someone can do it, it’s Rafa. However, I believe he will lose the final to Rune.

I’m keen to hear your predictions for the Brisbane ATP 250 tournament. The tennis season 2024 is ON!

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