The ATP Tour 2024 Predictions

by Jonas Eriksson

Who will rule the ATP Tour in 2024? Djokovic, Alcaraz or maybe Rune? Here are our ATP Tour 2024 Predictions.

Making ATP Tour 2024 predictions before the season starts is challenging. Who will be in form? What coaching change proves right? Who remains healthy for the better part of the season?

It’s clear that Novak Djokovic is not going anywhere. Will Djokovic win everything in 2024? No, we don’t think so. He is still the man to beat, but youngsters like Alcaraz, Rune and Sinner should be able to challenge for any Grand Slam title.

When the season starts at the Australian Open (click for our betting guide), Djokovic will be the strong favorite. It’s the Grand Slam where he has the most success with ten titles and everything looks perfectly set for title 11. I think Djokovic might win two Grand Slam titles in 2024. The Australian Open and Wimbledon. I think Djokovic will end the year as the world number one in the world (again).

But after the Australian Open swing, we head into the clay court season. Here, the big question mark is how much damage a healthy Rafael Nadal can make. Rafa is a huge question mark for 2024. If he is a hundred percent, he cannot be counted out of any event, but it could also be a year where his body says its final no. If he is in good shape, he is one of the favorites for the French Open, which is most likely his last chance of winning a Grand Slam title. I don’t see Rafa playing enough to fight for a top ten spot in 2024.

The Escape from Alcaraz?

It’s easy to get lured into an Alcaraz frenzy. The kid has everything to attract crowds and win slams. Injuries are still a concern for the young Spaniard and the end of 2023 wasn’t spectacular by any means. We wrote about his loss to Dimitrov in more in our article, “How do you beat Carlos Alcaraz?” in October. It’s obviously NOT easy, but the end of 2023 gave several players hope that it is doable on the right day.

How much can Alcaraz improve in 2024? He has already won the US Open and Wimbledon, maybe 2024 is the year where he breaks through at the French Open. That is our predictions, Alcaraz wins the French Open, but does not quite end the year as number one, but rather number 3.

Sinner Winner

Jannik Sinner proved that he should be counted as a threat for any tournament and surface. His spectacular play towards the end of the season at the Davis Cup Finals and the ATP Finals and his Masters title shows that he is ready. I think he will end the season as world number two, ahead of Alcaraz, but behind Djokovic. My prediction is that he will win the US Open and two hard court Masters titles.

Sinner should end up as the world number two by the end of the year.

Rune Assembles the Avengers

Holger Rune has been on a hiring spree in the off-season as we talked about in our YouTube video. With Boris Becker and Luthi (Federer’s ex-coach), he has a very strong team, but it is impossible to say how that will affect his game. It does signal some strong intent to take his tennis to the next level and we already know that Rune has huge potential.

2024 is the year he takes his first Masters title, but it’s not quite enough to win a Grand Slam.

Where do you think Rune ends up in the rankings? I would say 4.

What about the rest?

This is the difficult part to predict. I could easily write a full page about each player. Maybe at some point I will.

Medvedev is the guy who has shown the most potential among the generation of Tsitsipas and Zverev. But I do find it difficult to see him winning a slam in 2024. He can still be a threat and reach the final the 2023 US Open, but I don’t see him making leaps of improvement.

Talking about leaps, Zverev was impressive in reaching the top 10 after his gruesome injury that dropped him out of the top 100 in the rankings. But the German had enough game to get back into the top, and he showed it in style. Whether he has enough “game” to win a Grand Slam is doubtful.

Tsitsipas had a topsy-turvy 2023 with on-and-off coaching relationships, but he seems to have found a loving relationship with WTA star Paola Badosa. Can this help his tennis in 2024? Maybe. He has more potential than he showed in 2023, that is for sure.

Rublev had a great 2023 in a way, but he is still struggling to get past the quarter-final stage in Grand Slams. There seems to be a ceiling to the beloved Russian player, but with a good draw he should be able to make a deep GS run in 2024. Will he end the year as a top-ten player? Possibly.

Other than, I’m curious about up-and-coming players like Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils, Hamad Medjedovic and many more.

What do you think about our ATP Tour 2024 predictions? Please put your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!

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Mango December 27, 2023 - 04:30

Holger has already won a masters at Paris in 2022, perhaps this will be the year he wins another on clay after finishing runner up at 2/3 clay masters last year?

Looking forward to the new year!

Greg December 29, 2023 - 01:19

Always have to count Nadal in, especially on clay!


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