The second round of the Rio Open will feature a very interesting contest between Carlos Alcaraz and Fabio Fognini. This match is scheduled for this Thursday in Rio de Janeiro and will be a battle of generations with a 16-year age difference between the two players. Join us for our detailed prediction of this match, the best betting tips, and most trustworthy sportsbooks to place your bets.
Alcaraz vs Fognini Betting Odds
– Odds are subject to change –
Betting Prediction for Alcaraz vs Fognini – ATP Rio de Janeiro
Carlos Alcaraz began the defense of his Rio Open title with a 6-4 6-4 win over Brazilian wild card Mateus Alves. The match had to be played in two different days due to a rain delay on Tuesday when Alcaraz was just one game away from winning the match. The match was resumed on Wednesday and the Spaniard got the job done in a few minutes to book a place in the second round.
As we predicted in our Rio Open tournament preview, Alcaraz had a slow start to his campaign in Rio. Nevertheless, he got through and is in a great position to win the title after Dominic Thiem and Lorenzo Musetti’s early defeats. The world no.2 raised the level when needed to win the match in straight sets and extend his winning streak to five matches after his victory at the Buenos Aires Open last week.
Alcaraz is also looking to make history in Rio de Janeiro and become the first player to win back-to-back titles since the tournament started in 2014. He’s been one of the most consistent players on clay over the last 12 months, winning 32 of his last 36 matches on this surface.
The Spaniard will face Fabio Fognini in the next round, a former finalist in Rio and one of the most talented players in the game. Currently ranked outside the top 80, Fognini has struggled to find his best tennis in 2023. Nevertheless, the Italian got off to a flying start in Rio, defeating Marcelo Tomas Barrios-Vera by 6-2 6-3 in one hour and 31 minutes.
Rio de Janeiro has always been a special place for Fognini. Besides reaching the final in 2015, the 35-year-old is also a two-time semifinalist on this event. Last year he made it all the way to the semifinals, losing only to Alcaraz in their first career meeting. However, Fognini has a very tough task ahead this Thursday as he hasn’t won a match against a top 10 player since October 2019.
Alcaraz vs Fognini Head-to-Head
This will be the second career meeting between these two players. Alcaraz leads 1-0 in their head-to-head after a 6-2 7-5 win last year at this same event. Curiously, the two will face again in Rio de Janeiro and Alcaraz is once again the heavy favorite to win.
Alcaraz vs Fognini Betting Prediction
The sportsbooks are expecting a very easy win from Alcaraz on this match against Fognini, with the Spaniard as the heavy favorite. Looking at the prices among the best sportsbooks for tennis betting, Alcaraz is available around -1429, which indicates a probability of 93.46% to get the win.
Despite Fognini’s undeniable talent and quality, it’s hard to go against Alcaraz at the moment. The 2022 US Open champion is the big favorite to lift the trophy in Rio and seems unlikely that he won’t get his second title on this event.
It’s true that Alcaraz was far from impressive on his debut, but that was perfectly normal after such a long week in Buenos Aires. This happens often after winning a title and we should see a massive improvement from the Spaniard on this contest.
On the other hand, Fognini can play some great tennis on clay and was very impressive in the first round. However, this will be a completely different challenge and we expect a good win from Alcaraz on this match.
The spread is currently at -6 games for Alcaraz at -118, which doesn’t offer much value at the moment. Although we believe Alcaraz can cover this game handicap, there is a better option to approach this match, and that will be our main betting tip here.
Fognini is a player who has a lot of ups and downs during his matches and periods where he completely disappears. He might be able to keep the scoreboard close for the first set but then the second set should be a more straightforward result. That said, waiting for the first games to grab a lower spread line seems to be the best betting approach on our prediction for the match between Alcaraz and Fognini. You should be able to get a -5.5 line or even lower if Fognini keeps the score close for the first 4 or 5 games, making it a much better line to have here.
