The Rio Open gets underway this Monday at the Jockey Club Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro. This is the second ATP 500 event of the season, the first one on clay. Carlos Alcaraz is the undeniable favorite to lift the trophy, but can he extend his winning streak after winning the title in Buenos Aires? Find out our tennis betting tips for the Rio Open and which players might present the best value for this tournament.
Tennis Betting Odds for Rio Open Winner
Where to Bet on Rio Open
Heavy Favorite – Carlos Alcaraz
Looking at the tennis betting odds available for the Rio Open it’s easy to understand who is the heavy favorite to lift the trophy. Carlos Alcaraz is priced at just -133 to win the title, which is understandable after his dominant display in Buenos Aires.
The world no.2 played his first official tournament of the season last week and couldn’t have asked for a better start to the year, winning his 7th career title. Alcaraz dropped just one set the entire tournament and his level got better with each match.
Alcaraz is the top see in Rio de Janeiro and seems to have a very good draw to reach the final stages of this event. He will start his campaign on Tuesday against Brazilian wild card Mateus Alves and shouldn’t experience any problems to beat the local favorite.
In the next round he will face the winner of the match between Fabio Fognini and Tomas Barrios Vera from Chile. Fognini is the biggest name on that matchup but Barrios Vera is actually the favorite to win, as the Italian has been in awful form. Regardless of the winner, it’s hard to see any of them creating problems to Alcaraz.
Diego Schwartzman is the highest ranked player that Alcaraz can face in the quarterfinals, but the Argentinean has struggle to play his best tennis this year, winning only four games in his last match in Buenos Aires. The other potential opponents for Alcaraz on this part of the draw are Dusan Lajovic, Facundo Bagnis or Laslo Djere. All are very good players on clay but hard to see any of them defeating Alcaraz, who defeated Lajovic and Djere last week in Buenos Aires.
In the semifinals Alcaraz should face his biggest test of the week so far, as Lorenzo Musetti and Sebastian Baez are the most likely opponents. Musetti even defeated the Spaniard last year in Hamburg and can play great tennis on clay, but his disappointing performance in Buenos Aires was not a good sign.
Baez won the title in Cordoba and is a very talented player on this surface. However, we don’t see him having the level currently to beat Alcaraz, as he also failed to take a single set from the Spaniard in their previous two meetings.
As you can see, the draw for Alcaraz was very kind and it should be a pretty straightforward path into the final. The main obstacle for him might be some fatigue from Buenos Aires, as he played his first tournament of the season and will only have one day to rest.
In the first round he’s priced at -10000 to beat Alves in the best sportsbooks, meaning that his betting odds to win the Rio Open won’t really change after this. For that reason, waiting for this first match to make sure he’s physically ok and doesn’t decide to withdraw in the last minute is a good betting tip for this event.
Bottom Half of the Draw
In the bottom half of the draw there are some big names such as Cameron Norrie or Dominic Thiem. These are the two main favorites to reach the final on this side of the draw and the most likely opponents for Alcaraz in the final.
Both players might face each other in the second round, which will be a very interesting encounter. Unfortunately, Thiem is far from his best level and although he’s an exceptional clay-court player, it’s unlikely that he will produce his best tennis on this event. The Austrian only won one of the five matches he played so far in 2023 and suffered a disappointing defeat in the second round of Buenos Aires against Juan Pablo Varillas.
Norrie had a great week in the Argentinean capital and even reached the final. However, he had a very long week with plenty of three-set battles and it won’t be easy for him to make another run on this tournament. With this in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him losing in the early rounds and not even making it into the final.
The other players that can have a good run on this half of the draw are Francisco Cerundolo or Albert Ramos, two very good players on this surface. Cerundolo is a very entertaining player with a tremendous firepower and can have some great runs. On the other hand, Ramos is one of the most experienced players on this draw and always a tough player to beat on clay.
Despite Cerundolo and Ramos’ quality on this surface, we can’t really see how they can beat Alcaraz after the level he displayed in Buenos Aires, making it very unlikely that anyone from the bottom half of the draw can also beat him.
Best Betting Tips for ATP Rio de Janeiro
Alcaraz is the defending champion at the Rio Open and seems to be the best tennis betting option to lift the trophy once again in Rio de Janeiro. The odds are a reflection of his status, but seems a good approach as the draw is very weak this year.
As mentioned before, the main obstacle can be some fatigue from last week. This is why we suggest that you wait for the first round to place your tennis bets on Alcaraz to win the Rio Open, as the price won’t basically change. Sometimes players withdraw in the last minute and that could happen as he had a long week in Buenos Aires and was playing his first official tournament in four months.
Other interesting betting tips we have for the Rio Open is to look for value against Norrie, who should have a tough time to reach another final. He played at a good level in Buenos Aires but had a lot of tough matches and might be hard to replicate that result.
If we had to pick a dark horse for your betting tips in Rio that would be Cerundolo, a player who made it to the semifinals last year and can play great tennis on clay. He’s facing Roberto Carballes Baena in the first round and his moneyline at -179 can be a good first bet for you to take on this Rio Open 2023.
Best Tennis Betting Pick for Rio Open: Alcaraz to win at -133
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