Betting on Lower Level Tennis Tournaments

Every week in tennis, there are dozens and dozens of professional tournaments taking place. A few of these–those on the ATP and WTA Tours–receive the majority of the attention, with the biggest names playing. However, there are a myriad of other tennis events, many of which present excellent opportunities for tennis betting – if you know where to look.

So, how about betting on lower level tennis tournaments. From the Challenger Tour, to ITF Futures and beyond, we breakdown just why these events are so different to the usual Tour-level events, tips for betting on them successfully, and where you can go to get the best odds. 

The Challenge of Betting on Lower Level Tennis Tournaments

Before we dive into our tips for betting on lower level tennis tournaments, it’s important to understand why these events present a different challenge to higher level competitions.

Broadly speaking, players ranked between 100 and 300 in the world will be competing in Challenger tournaments. Those ranked from 300 to 1000+ will be fighting it out in some form of ITF event.

The thing is, often, players don’t stay at this ranking for long. Sure, some do–there are journeymen, veterans like Conor Niland who fought it out for well over a decade in the lower tournaments, never peaking higher than No 129 in the world. 

However, others move through this period of their career quickly. Take Carlos Alcaraz, who shot from outside the world’s top 300 to inside the top 100 in the space of a year as a teenager. What this means, is there will often be a degree of fluidity in betting on lower level tournaments. Players are on the rise, while others are coming back from injury or in decline. 

One day there will be an up-and-coming teenager playing against Stan Wawrinka, who is just enjoying being on the tennis court at 39 years old; the next it will be Matteo Berrettini looking to brush off the cobwebs after a few months off and facing a veteran Challenger player.

Such a diverse range of players in these events makes betting challenging. Often, there are big gaps in information, as far less is known about up-and-coming players. 

Tips for Making the Best Bets on the Challenger Tour and ITF Futures

While the factors above can be challenging for bettors, they also present opportunities. Bookmaker odds are often far less accurate at this level. Those who know what to look for and how to spot misaligned odds will be able to reap some excellent profits. 

Here are our top four tips for betting on lower level tennis:

1. Understand Player Trajectory

As touched on, players are usually doing one of three things in lower level tournaments: moving up the ranks, plateauing, or declining. Identifying what is going on in a player’s career is crucial for getting ahead of the bookies.

For example, say there’s a young player ranked No 350 in the world, coming up against an established top 150 player in a Challenger. Bookmakers will likely give skewed odds in favor of the veteran. However, if you can see that the young player was ranked outside the top 1000 six months ago, and beat a top 100 player already this season, that’s a great sign there could be an opportunity to bet the underdog.

Likewise, if you know a player is declining, then this opens up an angle for betting. Say someone like Adrian Mannarino plays in a Challenger. The Frenchman is a big name, having been in the top 20 earlier this year. However, he has lost 13 of his last 14 matches, and is low on confidence. Even if he was to play someone ranked well below him, betting the underdog could be great value.

2. Are They Home or Away?

Another factor that has a disproportionate influence over lower level tournaments is their location in the world.

At the highest level of tennis, players are professional travelers. They spend 10 months of the year on the road, have teams that travel with them, and know how to adapt quickly. 

For the lower levels, however, this is not the case. Players might still be taking buses and sharing accommodation, and some may not have planned well in advance to avoid jet lag and get in enough practice time ahead of tournament starts. Throw in emotional factors like home sickness and being lonely in an unfamiliar city, and betting against traveling players is often a smart wager.

On the contrary, home players will often have far greater crowd support. When crowd numbers are measured in the dozens, or the hundreds, rather than thousands, this can make all the difference. Add in the opposite factors to traveling–feeling comfortable, being well rested and secure–and players will typically out-perform their ranking when playing at home.

3. Surface Makes a Difference

Whether a tournament is being played on clay, grass or hard courts makes a difference for any tennis betting, but more so at the lower level. 

Once players have been around for some time on the Challenger and ITF Tours, then bookmakers will know to adjust their odds according to a player’s ability on a certain surface. However, for emerging players, often there are scant records of their success on particular types of court.

Researching into a player’s upbringing and what courts they have played most of their tennis on as a junior can give some excellent insight into whether odds are misaligned on a certain surface or not.

4. Personal Knowledge is Key

This leads us to our final, and most important aspect of betting on lower level tournaments: accessing some kind of personal knowledge. We’re not talking about anything illegal here–more just an understanding of a player’s background or current mental state, which might not be readily available to the public.

While knowing a player is certainly helpful, usually following players on social media can be a big clue. Tracking posts and getting a gauge of health and motivation levels will give an indication of whether a player is in a good space and about to come into form, or not.

Where to Bet on Lower Level Tournaments in Tennis

You’ve heard all about the challenges and how to overcome them to make some excellent bets on lower level tennis. Now, where is the best place to do so?

Have you ever made a bet on any matches outside of the ATP and WTA Tours? We’d love to hear about it–let us know in the comments below.