Djokovic vs Medvedev – ATP Dubai Prediction & Betting Tips

by TN Betting
Djokovic vs Medvedev – ATP Dubai Prediction & Betting Tips

The semifinals of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships will feature a blockbuster clash between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev. The match is scheduled for 7:00pm local time between the two most in-form players on the ATP Tour. Find out our detailed prediction for this match, the best tennis betting tips, and the most trustworthy sportsbooks to place your bets.

March 3rd, 2023


Over 22
1.85 (-118)

Betting Prediction for Djokovic vs Medvedev – ATP Dubai

Novak Djokovic continued his perfect start to the 2023 season with a 6-3, 7-5 victory over Hubert Hurkacz in one hour and 23 minutes. As predicted in our ATP Dubai quarterfinals analysis, Hurkacz was able to keep the scoreboard close but Djokovic proved too strong for the Polish. The world no.1 extended his winning record this year to 15-0 and is just two wins away from a 6th career title in Dubai.

Djokovic produced some impressive numbers in the previous round, winning 80% of his service points and not facing a single break point in the entire match. This was Djokovic’s best performance in the tournament so far, ending the match with 20 winners to just 7 unforced errors. Adding to this, Djokovic also won 92% of the points at the net and created eight break point chances on Hurkacz’s serve.

In the semifinals Djokovic will face Daniil Medvedev, who is also playing some of his best tennis in recent weeks. Medvedev is currently on a 12-match winning streak after winning back-to-back titles in Rotterdam and Doha. The 27-year-old will try to extend his good results this Friday and reach the final in Dubai for the first time in his career.

Looking now at Daniil’s campaign on this event, the former world no.1 reached this stage of the competition after an impressive 6-3, 6-2 win against Borna Coric in 88 minutes. Known as one of the best defenders in the game, Medvedev won 57% of the points on Coric’s serve and broke the Croatian’s serve five times in the match. Adding to this, Medvedev ended the match with impressive numbers, firing a total of 27 winners to just 15 unforced errors.

Djokovic vs Medvedev Head-to-Head

This will be the 14th official meeting between these two players. Djokovic leads 9-4 in their head-to-head and won all their last four encounters after his defeat to Medvedev in the final of the US Open in 2021.

Despite Novak’s recent dominance over Medvedev, the Russian has always been a tough opponent for Djokovic. When analyzing in detail their previous meetings, Djokovic only defeated Medvedev in straight sets three times, which means that Medvedev took a set in 10 of their previous 13 encounters.

Djokovic vs Medvedev Betting Tips – ATP Dubai

The sportsbooks are expecting a victory from Djokovic on this match, with the Serbian as the favorite to get the win. Looking at the prices in the best sportsbooks for tennis betting, Djokovic is available at around 1.55, which is -182 in American odds.

Although we agree with Novak’s favoritism, this should be a much closer encounter than the tennis betting odds suggest. Medvedev has always been a tough opponent for the Serbian and is playing some of his best tennis in recent weeks. We should witness some incredible rallies with both players taking their opponent to the extreme.

Both Djokovic and Medvedev have also been impressive on serve, dropping just one service game in their last two matches. Adding to this, the courts in Dubai are extremely fast and even though both are among the best returners in the game, we don’t expect a lot of breaks on this match.

When looking at the other tennis betting markets for this match in Dubai between Djokovic and Medvedev, the totals seems to be the best approach. This was also our strategy for Djokovic’s quarterfinal match against Hurkacz and we will do the same here. Medvedev should make this a very close contest, potentially taking it into a decider.

The over/under line for this game is currently at 22 games, which is a very good one to take. The reason is because this line can be covered in two close sets and you also have the guarantee of not losing your bet in case one of the players wins in straight sets with a tiebreak and a break. You can either have a 7-6, 6-4 or 7-6, 6-3, depending on who starts serving, but with 22 games you can never lose the bet on this scenario.

Having said that, the best betting tip on our prediction for Djokovic vs Medvedev in Dubai is the Over 22 games. This line can be found at odds of around 1.85 (-118) and is the best approach for this contest. Djokovic should emerge victorious from this match but is hard to find value on his betting odds, as Medvedev is playing at a very high level and is enjoying the conditions in Dubai.


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