Tennis is a unique sport and there are several factors that can have a decisive role in the outcome of a match. One of the most underrated elements on a tennis match is the weather and how important it is for the players. That said, on this article we’ll take a look at how weather conditions affect tennis betting and strategies that can help you when placing your bets.
External factors such as temperature, humidity, rain or wind can change a match completely. Each player is unique with their own playing style, which means that different weather conditions will suit different players.
We hope that this article will help you understand better how the different weather conditions can affect a tennis match, so you can make better analysis when placing your tennis bets.
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Temperature
If you are new to tennis betting, you probably never thought about checking the weather forecast before placing your bets. However, since most tournaments are played outdoor, temperature is a very important factor in the outcome of a tennis match.
Even though most people only think about the impact of temperature on the players, the tennis ball also reacts very differently according to the weather, making the game conditions extremely different to the players.
The overall logic is quite simple: temperature affects the bounce of the ball. Warm tennis balls bounce higher than cold ones due to changes in the internal pressure of the ball.
When its hot, the gas molecules inside the ball will expand, creating higher pressure conditions. This means that the ball will bounce more, making shots like topspin extremely effective. One player that thrives on high temperatures is Rafael Nadal since his heavy topspin is even more dangerous. This is something that you should always consider, especially when betting on clay, as this surface already has a natural higher bounce.
On the other hand, the gas molecules inside a tennis ball will contract with cold weather, making the ball less bouncy. Since there is less pressure inside the balls, they will bounce less when playing on these conditions. Players with flat shots are usually a good tennis bet when playing on these conditions, as the ball will stay low and much harder to return.
The other impact that temperature has on a tennis match is regarding air density. This is also an extremely important aspect of weather conditions that you should consider when placing your tennis bets.
Before we get into more details, it’s crucial to understand the concept of air density. As the name suggests, air density is the mass per unit volume, and it can decrease according to different factors. We also need to mention that air density is proportional to the drag force, which means that a reduction of air density also results in less drag force.
Looking to these two concepts on a tennis match perspective, the reduction in air density will increase the ball speed through the air. Since there is less drag force, the ball will encounter less resistance after leaving the players’ racket.
A change in temperature from 50ºF (10ºC) to 100ºF (38ºC) will result in a decrease of 10% in the air density. This means that a fast tennis shot can travel at 2-3 mph (3-5 km/h) faster, depending obviously on the type of spin and depth that it’s hit with.
Meanwhile, air density will increase with lower temperatures, meaning a higher drag force. When playing on these conditions, players will have more difficulty to hit winners as the ball will travel slower through the air, giving more time for the opponent to react.
Humidity
Players often complain about heavy conditions and how hard it is to play on those, but what does that really mean? In most of the cases they are talking about the impact of humidity, and this is a variable that you should consider if you want to know how to bet on tennis and make the most of it.
When humidity is high, there is more water vapor, meaning that it will be more difficult for water to evaporate. The main impact of humidity in a tennis match is in the players, making them sweat more and demanding more from their body.
On the other hand, since it’s harder for water to evaporate, tennis balls will become wet and that will also have an impact on the match and on your betting. If you have ever played with wet balls, you know that they will be significantly slower and is much harder to hit winners.
As it happens with temperature, a change in humidity also affects air density. However, the impact on this is much smaller than temperature, for example. A change in humidity from 0% to 100% only reduces air density by 1%, increasing the speed of a fast groundstroke by less than 0.3 mph (0.5 km/h).
The real change occurs when humidity and high temperatures combine. When playing on hot conditions, high humidity will hold much more water than on cooler air. These are some of the most extreme conditions that players can compete on, making it very demanding and giving the feeling of heavier conditions to the players.
In sum, humidity is a weather factor that you should always consider when placing your tennis bets. Even though the impact on air density is very small, humidity is very tough for the players. Also, the balls can become wet, and this will also make the game conditions slower overall.
One tournament where you should always consider humidity when betting on hard court is the Miami Masters. This event is famous for its high humidity, making the conditions very tough and slow for the players.
Wind
Tennis is mostly played outdoors, and wind is one of the weather variables that can have a significant impact in the outcome of a match.
If you have ever played tennis with wind, you know how annoying and difficult it can be. The ball trajectory is much harder to predict and even the greatest players can look like amateurs in extreme windy conditions.
That said, you should always look for potential windy conditions before placing your tennis bets. Knowing the players is also important as not all react the same way to wind. Some players really hate windy conditions while others accept it better and find a way to play through it.
The US Open 2012 is one of those tournaments that everyone will remember for how windy it was. In a match between Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych, not only the wind disturbed the players but even made Murray’s bag flying into the court as you can see in the video below.
Rain
This is variable that only applies for matches on clay, as this is the only surface where play can continue with light rain. In all other surfaces the game is immediately suspended if it starts raining since it’s impossible to play.
If you are looking to place bets on a clay-court tennis tournament, is always important that you check the weather forecast. When playing with light rain the courts and the ball become wet, making the conditions significantly slower to the players.
Players with topspin groundstrokes are the ones that struggle the most when playing on these conditions, as the ball doesn’t bounce as much as it usually does on clay courts. On the other hand, players with flat shots are usually a very good bet on light rain since their shots barely bounce, making it extremely difficult to return them.
Dry Air
We already mentioned the impact that temperature and humidity can have on air density and how these affect the game conditions. However, we haven’t spoken yet about dry air and how this impacts a tennis match.
Looking at all the tournaments in the season, the Indian Wells Masters is the one known for its dry air. The event takes place near the Mojave Desert and the dry air from it has a significant impact on the game conditions.
The courts at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden are rated as one of the slowest on the tour, but the conditions still feel quite fast to the players. This happens because tennis balls tend to fly further in the dry desert air, making it harder to control the ball. Players with kick serve and heavy topspin usually enjoy these conditions, as their shots will bounce more than usual.
This is a weather variable that applies mostly to Indian Wells as no other tournament is played in such unique conditions. That said, when betting in Indian Wells Masters you should never underestimate the impact of dry air in the ball speed and bounce.
Playing at Night
The last point we want to talk about is not really a weather variable itself, but it makes sense to talk about it in this article. Many tournaments are starting to have night sessions, which means that players will experience very different conditions than during the day.
When playing at night the conditions are significantly slower, mainly due to the absence of sun. The gas molecules inside the ball will contract and this will result in slower tennis balls.
The other factor that will also have an impact on the game conditions at night is humidity. The relative humidity is usually higher at night, meaning that the balls will also become wet and much slower.
Some of the most important tournaments that have night sessions are the US Open, Australian Open and Rome Masters. That said, you should always look at the schedule of play before placing your tennis bets, as betting on a day match is completely different than in one that takes place at night.
Betting Tips and Strategies for Weather Conditions
Now that we’ve seen the different weather variables that can affect a tennis match, it’s time to look at some betting tips and strategies that you can use to make the weather an advantage for you.
Combining these strategies with a good knowledge of the players, their recent performances and how they matchup with the opponent can make a huge difference in our tennis betting results.
Check Weather Forecast Before Betting
This may seem quite obvious after all we’ve been talked about, but we still want to reinforce how important it is to check the weather forecast before placing your tennis bets.
As mentioned, there are several variables that can affect the outcome of a match such as temperature, humidity, wind or rain. That said, you should look how the weather conditions will be for the day and hour that the match is taking place. Looking just for the weather for the day might not be enough, as things can change through the day.
Understand also, in case there is rain on a clay-court tournament, if the predicted amount of rain is enough to stop the match or if play can still continue. This can make a big difference as a match played on light rain will have much heavier conditions for the players.
Look for Particular Weather Conditions
Some places are quite unique and present special challenges to the players. The best example is the Indian Wells Masters, a tournament where the game conditions are quite unique due to the Mojave Desert’s dry air.
However, other tournaments might present other challenges to the players. Some tournaments are played very close to the sea and the players often experience extremely windy conditions.
From all tournaments on the ATP Tour, we have to highlight the Estoril Open in Portugal as one of the windiest tournaments. Below is a clip of what is probably the slowest ace ever due to the extreme wind that is felt on this event.
Analyze the Players in Detail
This is a crucial factor to be successful in tennis betting, not only regarding weather conditions but overall. The best bettors are those who know each player in detail, their playing style, how they perform in different conditions and what suits their game.
When looking at a player’s style on different weather conditions, you should also look for their past results in similar situations. Knowing how they handled a windy day or a very hot tournament can be a great indicator for future tennis bets.
Also make sure that you are looking for reliable data and keep in mind that players are always evolving. When Novak Djokovic started his career, for example, he struggled a lot with high temperatures and often collapsed under those. However, through the years he improved and became one of the fittest athletes on the tour.
Check the Schedule of Play
The last thing that you should be looking before placing your bets is the schedule of play. As mentioned before, there are plenty of tournaments with night sessions to attract more audience.
Playing during the day or at night is completely different as the weather is not the same. The lower temperatures, lack of sun and higher humidity makes the game conditions much slower at night.
That said, we recommend that you always look for the schedule of play before betting on any tennis match. Also, don’t forget to check always the official tournament site, as some websites might publish wrong orders of play and that is one of the most common mistakes in tennis betting that a lot of people do.
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FAQ – Frequently Asked Questions:
If you are looking to bet on tennis there are several weather variables that you should consider: temperature, humidity, rain and wind.
Playing tennis in humid conditions can be very demanding for the players and their body. Also, the balls can get wet and that will make the game conditions slower and much harder to hit winners.
Temperature has a direct impact on the gas molecules inside the ball. Warm tennis balls bounce higher than cold ones due to internal pressure. Besides, temperature can also affect your tennis betting as air density decreases with temperature, making the game conditions faster for the players.
Yes, there is a significant difference when betting on a tennis match played at night. The lower temperatures, absence of sun and higher humidity makes the conditions much slower for the players.
Considered the 5th Grand Slam of tennis, the Indian Wells Masters is played close to the Mojave Desert and the desert’s dry air makes the balls fly further and bounce higher than in other tournaments.
There are plenty of betting sites available and it's never easy to choose the best one. That said, we have a dedicated section with the best sportsbooks for tennis betting in different weather conditions.
