The 2024 Davis Cup final is set, with both Italy and the Netherlands navigating their way through the knockout stage in Malaga this week. Now, with only one more match remaining, let’s take a closer look at whether the Italians will be able to defend their trophy from last year.
2024 Davis Cup Final Odds and Favorites
- Italy to win @ 1.16 | -625
- Netherlands to win @ 5.00 | +400
Due to the way Jannik Sinner has performed lately, Italy are heavily favored to win the final. They won it last year largely because Sinner was outstanding, and he’s been even more superb this year as well.
Matteo Berrettini has performed pretty well recently as well, making it even more likely. The doubles might be a bit problematic if it comes to that, but there is a good chance we won’t see it.
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Davis Cup Finals Knockout Stage
The knockout stage has been fascinating so far with a couple of really interesting matches. Italy was able to squeeze past Argentina thanks to some doubles brilliance by Sinner and Berrettini.
Sinner won the singles as well, but Musetti lost the other singles, so they had to play the doubles. The second quarter-final was between Australia and the United States, with Australia pulling out a pretty big upset.
Thanasi Kokkinakis beat Ben Shelton in a crazy match that featured a 16-14 final set tiebreak, with Taylor Fritz overcoming Alex de Minaur in two sets. After that, we saw Ebden/Thompson beating Paul/Shelton in the doubles.
Germany took on Canada in a matchup that was pretty simple for the German team. Daniel Altmaier beat Gabriel Diallo in two sets, after which Jan-Lennard Struff beat Denis Shapovalov to secure the semi-final. Finally, we had the final appearance of Rafael Nadal, who was beaten by Botic van de Zandschulp in two sets.
Carlos Alcaraz beat Tallon Griekspoor to force a doubles match where he paired up with Granollers to lose to Koolhof/van de Zandschulp.
In the semi-finals, Italy beat Australia with Berrettini and Sinner both winning their singles matchups, as we predicted. The second semi-final saw the Netherlands beat Germany 2-0, with Griekspoor and van de Zandschulp both winning their matches.
Betting Tips and Predictions for the 2024 Davis Cup
With this in mind, let’s take a look at what might happen on this final day of the event.
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- Italy to Win
This is a pretty simple prediction, and it mostly comes down to the Italians having better players. While the Netherlands could technically do something in the matchup, Sinner basically will ensure at least one point for Italy.
With that, they only need one more, and between the doubles and Berrettini, they should be able to get it done. Even if the Dutch players have been rather good lately, playing way above their usual level.
With the experience of last year, it just seems very likely for Italy to win. The odds are pretty solid to boot, so it makes sense to back this outcome as many have predicted it even before the event began.
- Italy to Win 2-0
Italy is very likely to win 2-0. In fact it’s something they will be aiming to do because in the doubles, Wesley Koolhof has been playing superbly. He’s retiring from the sport and is clearly very motivated to finish off on a really high note.
Together with van de Zandschulp, he’s formed a really strong partnership and they utterly destroyed the Spanish combo. They were basically untouchable, barely losing any points, and generally doubles are pretty unpredictable.
Anything can happen and it’s not the sort of thing Italy will be happy to put themselves through, especially if they can win after two matches. Sinner is very likely to win his, regardless of who he plays.
It comes down to Berrettini winning his one and he’s been pretty good indoors. Lots will depend on the serve, but if he can win that, it would be game over for the Dutch team.
- Sinner to Win 2-0
This has got to be the least daring prediction out of all three, but it has the most merit. Sinner has been superb for a very long time, especially indoors where he’s been practically unbeatable for much of this year.
His record indoors this year so far is 13-0, and he’s 42-3 on hard courts this year. Of the 13 matches indoors this year, he lost a set in only three of them, and the last time it happened was at the Riyadh exhibitions.
He hasn’t lost a set indoors for over a month and he’s played a couple of really good players. He also played both Griekspoor and van de Zandschulp this year indoors and beat both easily in two sets, so whoever he gets to play, he will likely beat in two sets.
