Learn from Historical Performances and Upsets when Betting on the Australian Open

by Stefan Jonsson
Williams vs Qiang 2020

The Australian Open, one of the grandest stages in tennis, has also seen a few classic upsets. Even though the big names has clearly dominated in the last two decades, we want to look for those value bets and it’s time we learn some lessons from this before betting on the 2024 Australian Open.

Let’s have a close look into the patterns and lessons from past tournaments, and some historical moments from previous years.

Why Look at Past Tournaments?

Historical performance analysis is a cornerstone of informed betting. Players with a strong track record at the Australian Open often carry lower odds due to their proven ability to handle the unique conditions of Melbourne’s hard courts.

Novak Djokovic

A good example is Novak Djokovic’s crazy success at this tournament which has made him a strong favorite among all tennis betting sites for the 2024 event.

Current odds is which is very low for tournament winner odds.

Djokovic has won the Australian Open 10 (!) times, truly showcasing his dominance in Melbourne. Only Nadal and Federer (and a win in 2014 from Stan Wawrinka) has stood in his way.

His playing style suits hard courts, characterized by exceptional baseline play and resilience.

When betting on AO, we should weigh such consistent performance heavily, but also remain alert to potential physical or mental fatigue factors in seasoned champions. Novak is now also battling a smaller wrist injury, even though he claims it’s not an issue.

Famous Upsets

Upsets, while less frequent, provide critical insights. They often involve underdogs exploiting specific weaknesses in favorites or capitalizing on external factors such as weather or injuries.

Serena Williams vs. Wang Qiang, 2020

Serena, a favorite, lost in a stunning upset to Wang Qiang in the third round. Basically, Qiang’s relentless baseline rallies and Serena’s unforced errors were crucial.

Bettors should sometimes look beyond rankings, considering players’ current form and matchup dynamics, to find the best odds possible.

Roger Federer vs. Andreas Seppi, 2015

Federer, then World No. 2, was unexpectedly defeated by World No. 46 Andreas Seppi. Seppi’s aggressive play and Federer’s off-day turned this into a real surprise win for Seppi.

Even legends have off days. It’s vital to consider the mental and physical state of top players, especially in early rounds.

A few more classic surprises throughout the years;

  1. Marat Safin vs. Roger Federer, 2005 Semifinals: Safin, ranked 4th, defeated top-seeded Federer in a marathon five-set match, ending Federer’s 26-match winning streak in Grand Slams.
  2. Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Roger Federer, 2019 4th Round: Young Tsitsipas, then ranked 14th, stunned the tennis world by beating defending champion Federer in four sets.
  3. Roberta Vinci vs. Serena Williams, 2015 Semifinals: Vinci, unseeded and widely expected to lose, defeated Williams, thwarting her bid for a calendar-year Grand Slam.
  4. Lu Yen-hsun vs. Andy Roddick, 2008 2nd Round: Unseeded Lu from Taiwan upset the 6th seeded Roddick in a thrilling five-set match.
  5. Denis Istomin vs. Novak Djokovic, 2017 2nd Round: Ranked 117th, Istomin pulled off a stunning victory over six-time champion Djokovic in a five-set thriller.
  6. Hsieh Su-wei vs. Naomi Osaka, 2021 3rd Round: Hsieh, known for her unorthodox style, defeated reigning champion Osaka in straight sets.
  7. Chung Hyeon vs. Novak Djokovic, 2018 4th Round: Chung, then a rising star, outplayed an injury-hampered Djokovic to reach his first Grand Slam quarterfinal. See image.
  8. Sorana Cîrstea vs. Simona Halep, 2021 3rd Round: Cîrstea, ranked 61st, overcame fellow Romanian and 2nd seed Halep in three sets.
  9. Fernando Gonzalez vs. Lleyton Hewitt, 2007 3rd Round: Gonzalez, then 10th seed, overcame home favorite and former world No. 1 Hewitt in a gripping match.
  10. Fabio Fognini vs. Rafael Nadal, 2014 3rd Round: Fognini, known for his unpredictable play, ousted the 3rd seeded Nadal in a stunning upset.

What to Look for in This Year’s Tournament

Here are some useful tips we think bettors should watch for in the upcoming tournament. Make sure you check out our 2024 Australian Open predictions and let us know your thoughts!

  1. Hard Court Surface: Some players usually dominate on hard courts. Look at past performances in the Australian Open or similar surface tournaments.
  2. Fitness and Injuries: A seemingly minor injury can drastically alter a player’s chances.
  3. Underdogs with Aggressive Styles: Players who can maintain aggressive baseline play and serve well have upset potential.
  4. Weather Conditions: Extreme heat or variability can impact players differently.
  5. Early Round Upset Potential: Top players sometimes take time to find their rhythm, making them susceptible in early rounds.

This year’s tournament, like all before it, will be a blend of predictable patterns and surprising twists. The key is to use historical data as a guide, not a rule, and to remain adaptable. Remember, tennis is unpredictable.

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