The last Masters 1000 event of the 2024 season is upon us, and as always, it’s the Paris Masters. This indoor hard court event serves as the final preparation for the best players in the world ahead of the ATP Finals.
For other players, it provides one last chance to make a big splash this year and improve their standing for 2025. It’s an interesting event, as we generally see plenty of surprises every year, so let’s take a look at what might happen at this year’s Paris Masters.
ATP Paris Odds and Favorites
A total of 56 men will compete in Paris, but only one can lift the trophy. Who will it be? For context, here’s what the latest bookmaker odds and the tournament’s seeding has to say.
Men’s Paris Open Betting Odds
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 3.10 (+210)
- Jannik Sinner @ 3.10 (+210)
- Daniil Medvedev @ 9.00 (+800)
- Alexander Zverev @ 11.00 (+1000)
- Tommy Paul @ 29.00 (+2800)
Somewhat expectedly, the top two favorites at the event are Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Both have identical odds of winning, at 3.10 (+210) each. That makes sense given their spectacular form in recent months.
They played each other in the China Open final, where Alcaraz came out on top. Sinner then won in Shanghai, and they also faced each other in the Six Kings Slam final, with Sinner taking the victory.
There’s quite a big gap after them, with Daniil Medvedev as the third favorite at 9.00 (+800), showing that bookies have little faith in his chances. Following him is Alexander Zverev, who’s previously reached the final and is priced slightly higher than Medvedev at 11.00 (+1000).
Tommy Paul is listed as the fifth favorite, though the odds suggest there isn’t much expectation for him to make a significant impact.
Odds taken from our top rated sportsbooks. For this tournament we recommend Betr for AU bettors.
Odds taken from our top rated sportsbooks. For this tournament we recommend PariMatch for UK bettors.
Odds taken from our top rated sportsbooks. For this tournament we recommend BetOnline or Sportsbetting.ag for US bettors.
Odds taken from our top rated sportsbooks. For this tournament we recommend Cloudbet (crypto), Pinnacle or 22Bet.
Top Men’s Seeds in Paris
- Jannik Sinner
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Alexander Zverev
- Daniil Medvedev
- Taylor Fritz
- Andrey Rublev
- Casper Ruud
- Grigor Dimitrov
A total of 16 players are seeded at the Paris Masters, with the top eight (who receive byes into the second round) listed above. Understandably, the top four align with the odds for the Paris Masters betting, before some variation begins to occur due to form.
Betting Tips and Predictions for the ATP Paris Masters 1000
After seeing what the bookmakers predict, here are our thoughts on what might unfold at the Paris Masters. It’s a somewhat tricky event to figure out because plenty of surprises happen every year – just looking at the list of past champions shows how unpredictable it can be.
- Sinner to Win
This isn’t a controversial pick by any means; it’s simply the most likely outcome. We’d love to suggest that Sinner won’t win the event or that something unexpected will happen, but ultimately, there’s just a very high likelihood he will win.
Though he hasn’t been at his best in Paris over the years, he’s been outstanding this season. The Italian was just points away from winning the China Open against Alcaraz, and then he claimed the title in Shanghai by defeating Novak Djokovic in the final. Following that, he won the Six King Slam in Saudi Arabia, an incredible run.
He was exceptional indoors last year, and he may well continue in that form this season. Alcaraz poses the biggest threat, but the Italian has handled him well recently.
Overall, this is the most likely outcome according to the oddsmakers, and there’s a very good reason for that. Based on everything that has happened leading up to this event, it’s a highly probable result.
- Rune to Make the Final
Now, this is an interesting idea we think is worth exploring, mainly because of Holger Rune‘s history at this event. He’s won here before, even defeating Novak Djokovic, so he clearly feels comfortable in these conditions.
The Dane’s form has been trending upward in recent weeks as well. He looked pretty good in Shanghai, certainly better than in the weeks prior, and he also participated in the exhibition in Saudi Arabia. In Basel, he played well, though he couldn’t get past the eventual winner, Giovanni Mpetschi Perricard. Overall, he’s been solid lately, and making a deep run in Paris a real possibility.
A lot will depend on his serve and how effectively he can play behind it. His draw is interesting: if he gets past Matteo Arnaldi in the opening round, he’ll face either Alexander Bublik or Fabio Fognini in the second round—matches he can win comfortably. But then, he’ll likely meet Jannik Sinner.
If he manages to win that one, there’s a strong chance he’ll go all the way to the final. It’s a long shot but worth exploring, especially considering how much tennis Sinner has played lately and with the ATP Finals coming up, which he might be focused on.
- Mpetshi Perricard to Make the Semi-Final
Mpetshi Perricard just won the Basel event, and he did it without too much trouble. The French player was nearly unstoppable on his serve, delivering a lights-out performance.
If he can somehow repeat that and hit 20+ aces per match, there’s a very good chance he could make a deep run here. The conditions in Basel and Paris are similar, and as a native player, he’ll have the crowd’s support in most matches, which can elevate him even further. Fresh off a trophy win, he’s likely feeling really confident about his game.
Another reason this could happen is the draw. He’s facing Frances Tiafoe in the opening round, which is winnable. After that, it would be Karen Khachanov or Pablo Carreno Busta—another winnable match. Then he might face Daniil Medvedev, which is certainly within reach, followed by Dimitrov for a potential semi-final.
It’s a bit of a long shot, but not impossible, and it’s worth a try considering how well he’s been playing lately.
