The Cincinnati WTA 1000 concludes today, with perhaps the most exciting final that the tournament organizers could have hoped for. On one side of the net you have Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka, fresh off thrashing the world No 1 in straight sets. On the other, home favorite and recent Toronto champion Jessica Pegula, riding a nine-match winning streak and looking to complete the Canada-Cincinnati double for the first time in half a century.
With such a mouth-watering final set in Cincinnati, we’ve got all you need to know ahead of the big match. We dive into the pair’s head-to-head and look at their recent form, breaking down the bookmakers’ odds and outlining our Sabalenka vs Pegula betting tips and predictions for how this clash will unfold.
Sabalenka vs Pegula Odds
Before we look at any sort of prediction, here’s how to Sabalenka vs Pegula odds are stacking up ahead of Monday’s match:
- Aryna Sabalenka to win @ 1.40 (-250)
- Jessica Pegula to win @ 2.90 (+190)
Sabalenka holds a significant advantage in the betting odds, paying just 1.40 (-250) to win the Cincinnati Open final. Pegula isn’t completely out of it from bookmaker Cloudbet’s perspective, but still trails at a moderate 2.90 (+190). She’s given a handicap of +3.5 games at 2.00 (+100), while Sabalenka returns 1.73 (-138) to cover the same spread. The Belarusian is tipped to win in straight sets as the most likely outcome, paying 1.95 (-105) for this result.
Head-to-Head: Sabalenka vs Pegula
There’s a healthy head-to-head to go off between Sabalenka and Pegula, with the duo meeting six times previously on the WTA Tour. Pegula won the first and the most recent clashes, while Sabalenka comfortably cleaned up the other four meetings in straight sets. Their latest match was in the WTA Finals last year, where Pegula prevailed 6-4, 6-3.
Recent Form
Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka missed Wimbledon this year with a rotator cuff injury, and opted not to compete in the Olympics either. Instead, she played two North American hard court tournaments in Washington and Toronto, with mixed results–losses in the semi-finals to Marie Bouzkova and quarter-finals to Amanda Anisimova.
This week, it seems as though Sabalenka has finally shaken any lingering hesitation over her shoulder injury. She’s been swinging freely, and has raced through her section of the draw without dropping a set so far.
First it was Elisabetta Cocciaretto (6-3, 6-4), then Ukraine’s Elina Svitolina (7-5, 6-2). In the quarter-finals she saw off Luidmila Samsonova for the loss of just five games (6-3, 6-2), while in the semi-finals, she dropped just one more, ousting five-time Grand Slam champion Swiatek in dominant fashion (6-3, 6-3).
Jessica Pegula
Pegula had had a forgettable year, until 10 days ago. She was 21-10 heading into the Toronto WTA 1000, having missed the European clay court swing and fallen early in both Melbourne and Wimbledon.
Now, she’s done what no woman has done since Serena Williams in 2013, and made the final of both Canada and Cincinnati. She won Canada, and has now won nine matches in a row with four wins here in Ohio so far.
Pegula began her campaign slowly, dropping her opening set of the tournament to Karolina Muchova. She came back and won 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, which then sparked a strong run of wins, thrashing Taylor Townsend 6-2, 6-3 and edging Leylah Fernandez 7-5, 6-7 (1), 7-6 (3). Most recently, she took on the in-form Paula Badosa, who had won 10 of her last 11 matches, and ended the Spaniard’s streak 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.
Our Sabalenka vs Pegula Prediction and Betting Tips
There’s a reason why it’s been 50 years since any woman won Canada and Cincinnati in the same year. It’s hard to do. We expect that Monday’s match will reveal that, and taking on Sabalenka will be a bridge too far for Pegula.
She did a good job of defusing Badosa’s power in the semi-finals. However, Sabalenka is a different beast, and the Belarusian will know what she’s getting herself into. Sabalenka comes into this match far hungrier for a result in our opinion, with the soon-to-be world No 2 wanting to prove herself ahead of the women’s US Open.
Our prediction: Sabalenka in straight sets.
The fact that Sabalenka has beaten Pegula in straight sets in four of their last five matches is a big indicator for us how this match will unfold. Based on that, here are the bets we recommend on Sabalenka vs Pegula:
- Sabalenka to win 2-0 @ 1.95 (-110)
- Total games under 19.5 @ 2.20 (+120)
- Sabalenka -3.5 handicap @ 1.73 (-138)
Enjoy the final!
