The Asian swing of the ATP Tour reaches its climax this week, with 96 of the world’s best tennis players fighting it out for glory at the Shanghai Masters in China. All but one of the men’s top 10 will be in action, with Novak Djokovic returning for the first time since the US Open, and the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz looking to keep their momentum going.
With valuable ranking points on the line ahead of the ATP Finals in November, we break down all there is to know about the Shanghai Masters.
ATP Shanghai Odds and Favorites
Before we dive into our Shanghai Masters predictions, let’s see what the betting sites have to say about the year’s penultimate Masters 1000 event. Here are the latest ATP Shanghai odds:
Men’s Shanghai Masters Betting Odds
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 3.00 (+200)
- Jannik Sinner @ 4.33 (+333)
- Novak Djokovic @ 4.75 (+375)
- Alexander Zverev @ 9.00 (+800)
- Daniil Medvedev @ 13.00 (+1200)
There’s a clear separation at the bookies, with Alcaraz, Sinner and Djokovic once again well ahead of the pack. Alcaraz has his nose in front at 3.00 (+200), but Sinner and Djokovic aren’t far behind on 4.33 (+333) and 4.75 (+375) respectively.
Behind these three there’s a big drop down to Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev, who round out the top five favorites. Their odds of 9.00 (+800) and 13.00 (+1200) are well off the pace though.
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Top Men’s Seeds in Shanghai
- Jannik Sinner
- Alexander Zverev
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Novak Djokovic
- Daniil Medvedev
- Andrey Rublev
- Taylor Fritz
- Casper Ruud
All 32 seeds in Shanghai will receive byes into the second round, but these are the top eight seeds that will avoid each other until the quarter-finals. The big discrepancy between seeds and betting odds is Zverev, who sits in the fourth line of betting despite being seeded second.
Betting Tips and Predictions for the ATP Shanghai Masters 1000
You’ve seen the lay of the land, now time for our Shanghai Masters predictions. Here’s how we predict the tournament will unfold, and the bets we recommend taking:
- Medvedev to Win
We predicted Medvedev to do well in Cincinnati, and he let us down. It takes some courage to back the Russian again here in Shanghai, but that’s exactly what we’re doing!
There are a range of reasons why we expect Medvedev to win this tournament. Firstly, he’s done it before. While this isn’t usually an indicator for him – all 20 of his titles have been at different events – we do think this surface in particular suits his style well. Shanghai is nice and fast, which will give Medvedev some good pay on the serve.
Primarily though, we can see Medvedev capitalizing on the shortcomings of others in Shanghai. Alcaraz and Sinner are coming to this tournament fresh off the back of competing in the Beijing final, so will have a bit of fatigue. With one eye on the ATP Finals, it’s easy to see both of them misfiring in Shanghai. Zverev has just been in hospital, and Djokovic hasn’t played in over a month.
Even though Medvedev himself hasn’t won a title all year, he still seems in a good space, as evidenced by his banter at the net after losing to Alcaraz in Beijing. We think it’ll all come together for him this week.
- Djokovic to Go Deep
Though Djokovic has been a shadow of himself this year – except for his impressive showing at the Olympics – we do think he will go deep in Shanghai.
This isn’t necessarily a prediction we would have made this time last week. In many ways it seems as though Djokovic has clocked out already for the year, and is simply enjoying spending time with his family and celebrating having ‘completed tennis’. However, looking at the Shanghai Masters draw, it’s almost harder to see Djokovic not making the final.
The Serbian avoids Sinner, Alcaraz and Medvedev in his half, and instead gets the likes of Zverev (who is burnout and just had pneumonia), Taylor Fritz (who he’s 9-0 against) and Andrey Rublev (who he’s 5-1 against including the last four in a row).
We don’t think Djokovic will have it in him to win a final against whoever makes it from the top half of the draw, but we do expect he’ll have a deep run in Shanghai.
- Tiafoe a Dark Horse
Those looking to make a high odds bet will want to seriously consider a punt on Frances Tiafoe. The American is paying an incredible 67.00 (+6600) in Shanghai, and yet has been one of the form players on hardcourts in the second half of 2024.
Since Wimbledon, he’s been red-hot, making the final of the Cincinnati Masters and semi-final of the US Open. During this period he’s gone 4-2 against top 10 players, and has looked like a genuine top 10 player himself. Considering he also avoids the Sinner/Alcaraz/Medvedev threat until the final, it’s not at all unreasonable for the 26-year-old to string together another run and claim the title in Shanghai.
What are your predictions this week? Let us know in the comments below!
