ATP Beijing 2024 Final Preview and Prediction
The biggest rivalry of this year will add another chapter at the 2024 China Open Final, yes, it’s Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz in a blockbuster showdown on Wednesday.
Defending champion Sinner defeated the home favorite, and big tournament surprise, Yunchaokete Bu in the semi-final 6-3, 7-6(3) to reach the final. Ahead of the semi’s, the world no 1 faced tough challenges from Nicolas Jarry, Roman Safiullin and Jiri Lehecka.
The Italian commented about the tough match ahead:
“We know each other very well now, but every match is different, so the situation on the court is also a bit different than it was (in) the last two matches…. It’s going to be tactical. I’m looking forward to it.”, Sinner said.
Alcaraz won his place in the final with a prestigious win over world no 5 Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-3 in the other semi-final, (his third win in a row this year over Medvedev btw). This will be the Spaniards fifth final in 2024.
Odds for Sinner v Alcaraz
Looking at the betting odds for the final, we can see that Alcaraz is a small favorite among the bookmakers.
- Alcaraz to win, 1.80 or -125
- Sinner to win, 2.05 or +105
- Over 23.5 games, 2.00 or +100
- Under 23.5 games, 1.74 or -137.5
Odds taken from our recommended sportsbooks. We recommend PariMatch for UK bettors.
Odds taken from our recommended sportsbooks. We recommend FanDuel or DraftKings for US bettors.
Predictions
Sinner and Alcaraz will meet for the 10th time on tour (but only their second final against each other) on Wednesday and the Spaniard currently has a tight 5-4 lead in their H2H stats.
Looking at the form and level at this tournament I would give a slight edge to Carlitos, and maybe that is shown in the odds. However, looking at Sinner’s stats from finals we can see an unbelievable 16-4 lifetime and 6-0 this year.
The world no 1 would surely also not like to lose 3 in a row against one of his biggest rivals…
Prediction: It should be a great, even match and I will go with a hard-fought 2-1 win for Sinner.
