Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have both won two matches to reach the final of this Six Kings Slam exhibition event. Now, there is only one more match to play, and it’s a big one. A $6 million prize is on the line, which is a massive champion’s purse. Nothing on the ATP Tour compares to this, so you can expect both players to give it their all. Read on as we break down the matchup and outline our betting tips for the Six Kings Slam final.
Sinner vs Alcaraz Odds
First thing’s first, let’s look at what tennis bookies are predicting in this match. Here are the latest Sinner vs Alcaraz odds:
- Sinner to win @ 1.75 (-133)
- Alcaraz to win @ 2.00 (+100)
As expected, Sinner vs Alcaraz is priced closely in the Six Kings Slam final, with Sinner being only a slight favorite. His win is priced at 1.75 by tennis betting sites, which seems fair considering his recent form and performance.
Alcaraz is priced a bit higher at 2.00, but overall, those betting odds suggest they are given nearly equal chances of winning the match. Alcaraz’s disappointing showing in Shanghai is likely why he’s seen as a minor underdog, but the odds still imply an almost equal probability of winning.
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Head-to-Head: Sinner vs Alcaraz
When it comes to their head-to-head matches, it’s been quite fascinating so far. They’ve played 11 matches, with Alcaraz leading 7-4. There’s a clear breakdown when it comes to surfaces too.
On clay, Alcaraz leads at 2-1. On grass, Sinner holds the edge at 1-0, but on hard courts, Alcaraz dominates with a 5-2 lead. As good as Sinner has been on hard courts throughout his career, he tends to struggle against the Spaniard.
Both of the hard court matches they played this year were won by Alcaraz. Including the French Open, Alcaraz is 3-0 against Sinner in 2024, despite the Italian having his best season ever.
Recent Form
Jannik Sinner
Sinner has been in incredible form this year, and recently as well. He won the US Open without too much trouble, steamrolling everyone he faced. After that, he took a brief break but returned at the China Open in Beijing.
He made a run to the final, even though he wasn’t playing his sharpest. Still, he showed up in the final against Alcaraz, no less. The Italian was leading in the final set tiebreak, getting very close to winning, but Alcaraz stormed back in incredible fashion to take it.
As upsetting as that was, Sinner quickly shook it off in Shanghai, where he went all the way to the final and won the event, his last before arriving in Saudi Arabia for this exhibition. He beat Daniil Medvedev without much trouble on Wednesday, and then overcame Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals.
All in all, Sinner has been the best player in the world over the past month and more. Outside of that match against Alcaraz, which he could have won, he’s been the best, and no one has come close to touching him.
Carlos Alcaraz
This has been a rather interesting year for Alcaraz, who has experienced almost everything you can imagine. He missed a good amount of time due to injuries, then won the French Open and Wimbledon during the summer, which was incredible.
He arrived in North America as the top favorite for the hard court swing series but performed poorly, including at the Grand Slam itself. That was arguably one of the lowest points of his career so far.
After that, he found some decent form in Beijing, winning the event with a marvelous comeback over Sinner. But then he struggled again, bombing out of the Shanghai Masters, so he’s been rather volatile. His form fluctuates almost consistently at this point, making it difficult to predict what he’ll do.
So far, he’s been solid in Riyadh, winning two matches without too many problems. He tends to show up against Sinner, having beaten him seven out of the 11 times they’ve played, so there’s a good chance he’ll find his best tennis here.
Our Sinner vs Alcaraz Prediction and Betting Tips
With all of this said, how will Sinner vs Alcaraz pan out?
This might be an exhibition, but their encounters have been very close so far—essentially fireworks every time they’ve played—which makes this one especially intriguing. It’s also a tough one to call because their head-to-head has been both somewhat predictable and unpredictable.
On the one hand, we have Sinner, who arrived in better form but looked a bit shakier than Alcaraz here. On the other hand, we have Alcaraz, whose form fluctuates, and depending on the day, he can be a completely different player. At his best, Alcaraz is better than Sinner. There are no analysts who would say otherwise.
If he’s not at his best, he can be beaten rather easily, which only makes it harder to predict. How their matchups have gone this year, especially on hard courts, suggests that one player is more likely to win this match.
It’s Alcaraz, because he simply tends to show up when he plays Sinner. Call it rivalry, motivation, or anything else, but that’s what happens. It doesn’t matter how well Sinner is playing; Alcaraz just goes above and beyond and usually wins the match.
Our prediction: Alcaraz in two sets.
In terms of the best bets to make, we have two bets. One is Alcaraz to win in two sets while the other is the over because we do think it’s going to be rather close. So, these are our recommended bets:
- Alcaraz to win @ 2.00 (+100)
- Over 22.5 games @ 1.80 (-125)
Let us know your picks for the final!
