It’s the match that America has been waiting two decades for: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe in the US Open semi-finals. This is the first time since 2005 that two American men have met in the last four of the major, and will mean that for the first time since 2009, the United States will have a man in the final of a Grand Slam on Sunday.
How will this blockbusting match unfold on Friday night in New York? Read on to find out, as we’ve got the latest Fritz vs Tiafoe prediction, complete with a breakdown of which bets we see being the best on day 12 of the US Open.
US Open Day 12 Best Bets
We think that backing Tiafoe in this clash is brilliant value. Partly because we genuinely expect he will win, but also, partly because this match feels much closer than the odds at tennis bookmakers are suggesting. Here are the three bets we suggest making on Fritz vs Tiafoe:
- Tiafoe +3.5 handicap @ 1.91 | -110
- Tiafoe to win @ 3.00 | +200
- Match to go five sets @ 3.25 | +225
Curious? Read on to find out why we expect these to be the wagers that pay on day 12 of the US Open.
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Fritz vs Tiafoe Preview
There are strong arguments to be made for each player in this semi-final.
For Taylor Fritz, you have the fact that he has been a far more consistent performer than Tiafoe over his career.
The 26-year-old has a career high of No 5 in the world, and has spent large chunks of the past two years inside the world’s top 10. Tiafoe, on the other hand, just scraped into the No 10 spot once, briefly. Fritz also has more titles (eight to three), more wins on the ATP Tour (274 to 206), more Grand Slam quarter-finals (four to three), and more success in 2024 (43 wins to 29).
He leads the head-to-head against Tiafoe 6-1 as well, having won the last six in a row between the two, with Tiafoe’s last win coming in 2016.
Fritz’s path to get to the US Open semi-finals has arguably been more impressive too, with the American defeating the ever-threatening Matteo Berrettini in the second round, then No 8 seed Casper Ruud and No 4 seed Alexander Zverev most recently. Tiafoe has only had to overcome one top 10 player so far.
But for Frances Tiafoe, there’s his track record in New York. The 26-year-old calls Arthur Ashe Stadium ‘his house’ for good reason–he’s 20-4 here since 2020, having made the semi-finals and quarter-finals in the past two years.
The fact that he has played semi-final tennis here before is a big plus too: it’s Fritz’s first time making it this far in a major. Tiafoe also has recent experience playing this kind of high-publicity match as well, having beaten No 13 seed and fellow American Ben Shelton in five sets in the third round.
Then there’s the fact that Tiafoe’s hard court form is more established this year. This US Open isn’t just a flash in the pan. Since Wimbledon, Tiafoe has been playing excellently, making the quarter-finals of Atlanta, semi-finals of Washington and final of Cincinnati. He’s picking up top 20 wins at will too, with one in Washington, three in Cincinnati and two so far in New York.
What we expect this match will come down to is the racquet of Tiafoe. He’s a big match player, and when he’s on, he’s on. This makes it a very 50/50 match in our eyes.
Off the back of this Fritz vs Tiafoe prediction, that makes backing Tiafoe excellent value. Taking a 50/50 chance at 3.00 is just good math.
Equally, we believe that Tiafoe’s mercurial nature makes backing him at a +3.5 game handicap bet is a smart move. He has won a set in each of his five matches at the US Open by a three-game margin or more. He should do that at some stage against Fritz too, which will help limit the overall damage, even if he does lose.
We also think that betting on this semi-final to go the distance is a sharp bet, simply because of the stakes, the nerves, and how hot and cold Tiafoe can run. Fritz is consistent, and will pick up sets when Tiafoe comes off the boil, while Tiafoe’s ceiling is so high, that when he has momentum, he’ll run through Fritz. Sounds like a recipe for a five-setter to us!
