It’s semi-final time at the US Open, with home favourite Emma Navarro taking on second seed Aryna Sabalenka in the first of two women’s matches this Thursday in New York.
The 2023 finalist has been in blistering form, racing past everyone that has stood in her path the past month. Can Navarro, playing in her first-ever Grand Slam semi-final, be the one to stop her? We dive into the match up and offer our Navarro vs Sabalenka prediction ahead of day 11’s action at the US Open, complete with a range of betting tips.
US Open Day 11 Best Bets
We have a strong take on this match: it’s going to be just as one-sided as the pair’s last encounter, and as Sabalenka’s matches have been so far in New York. Based on this prediction, these are the best betting tips we see for day 11 of the US Open:
- Sabalenka to win @ 1.22 | -450
- Sabalenka to win and under 20.5 games @ 2.20 | +120
- First set 6-2 @ 6.00 | +500
See below for a full analysis of why we believe these bets will pay.
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Navarro vs Sabalenka Preview
While Sabalenka is clearly the form player coming into this clash, it’s not quite as clear cut when you dive into the details.
Navarro is also in excellent form. In her last two matches, the American has defeated the defending champion Coco Gauff, and a red-hot Paula Badosa, who has easily been at a top 10 level on North American hard courts over the past month.
She also started very well in New York, winning both of her opening matches 6-1, 6-1.
Added to this, Navarro has a win over Sabalenka this year, defeating her 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 in Indian Wells.
However, the case for Sabalenka is strong in this match.
First of all, the Belarusian is like a runaway freight train on hard courts at the moment. She’s won 10 in a row now, having first blistered her way to yet another WTA 1000 title in Cincinnati, before racing through her opening five matches at the US Open as well.
In Cincinnati, Sabalenka was particularly impressive. She didn’t drop a set all week, and picked up wins over the likes of Jessica Pegula (who was on a nine-match winning streak), Iga Swiatek (world No 1) and Elina Svitolina.
She has continued that momentum in New York, dropping just one set when she made a sleepy start in the third round against Ekaterina Alexandrova (she came back to win the second and third sets 6-1, 6-2). Most recently, Sabalenka dismantled Qinwen Zheng, the 2024 Paris Olympics champion, for the loss of just three games.
Perhaps the most telling evidence of what will happen in this semi-final is how Sabalenka and Navarro’s latest match went. That happened at the French Open, a surface that hinders Sabalenka’s power game, and she still won 6-2, 6-3.
We expect a very similar result in Thursday’s match. The second seed is simply seeing and striking the ball too well. She knows how to beat Navarro and has all the momentum and experience heading into the clash.
She should make a fast start as she has in all but one of her matches at the US Open, and run through the first set 6-2. From here, back her to close out the match in under 20.5 games.
