Of course, the women’s draw has also been published last night. And as per usual, Iga Swiatek is the player in the top spot coming into the US Open. She might be leading the rankings, but she struggled a bit with certain opponents within the last weeks, and all of those will be coming for her at this tournament.
Aryna Sabalenka seems to be all back from a shoulder injury, and while Gauff and Rybakina seem to be struggling, a bunch of American women are among the favorites in the US Open women’s odds for a title in front of home crowds. The US Open never fail to surprise, especially at the women, where Raducanu, Andreescu and Stephens all reached their only titles recently.
The first quarter – Swiatek vs the USA
The headline might be a little bit populistic, but it seems as if Iga’s part of this quarter is smooth sailing for the first three rounds. The World No. 1 will be facing qualifier Rakhimova, potentially Daria Saville and Pavlyuchenkova for these matches, which all seem fairly doable for her. Her fourth round might either by teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva or Ludmila Samsonova, if they can get through their first couple of rounds. Compared to Jannik Sinner’s draw, she surely has the easier start to her US Open and can gain some confidence, before she faces the other half of this quarter.
And that other half is stacked with some American women looking for their chance. Danielle Collins is into her last major, with her announced retirement nearing. She looks to be the clear favorite until she might face off against Diana Shnaider in round 3. Jessica Pegula is in prime shape and just comes off back-to-back Masters finals, which will make her a problem for anyone in this draw.
Together with Sofia Kenin and the two Brits Emma Raducanu and Katie Boulder, they will play for the spot in quarterfinals against Swiatek. To me, Jessica Pegula is the favorite here and might even be on par with Iga, if both keep their respective shapes until then.
The second quarter – Rybakina all back?
Jelena Rybakina has had a rollercoaster of a year – titles followed by sickness, followed by finals, followed by injuries and so on. The Kazakh No. 1 is back in New York, trying to improve her record at a Slam, where she has a win percentage of below 50 % and has never reached the fourth round. She is joined by Jasmine Paolini, who has not played a whole lot of hard-court tennis so far and doesn’t seem like the top contender once more. But she has more than once this season proven that this doesn’t mean much to her chances.
Rybakina would have to beat qualifier Aiava, Ponchet or Zheng and possibly Caroline Garcia on her way to a matchup with either Anna Kalinskaya or Bia Haddad-Maia. With all respect to her game, this part of the quarter seems wide open, especially given her injury struggles and record at the US Open. Paolini will have to fend off former champion Andreescu first, before facing Pliskova or Sherif and potentially Julia Putintseva, who made some noise recently. The secret favorite to this half might be Jelena Ostapenko, who has caught one tough draw to begin with. She is joined by Osaka, Muchova, Potapova and Fernandez.
All these brackets are more than open, with the favorites struggling and a lot of former champions, comebackers and underrated players in the quarter. Since her half of the quarter seems easier, I would give the first quarterfinal spot to Rybakina. The bottom half of this part is incredibly close, but I will go and gamble a bit and say that Karolina Muchova has quite a shot at a good result here, if she can beat Ostapenko. I’ll have her or the Latvian World No. 10 face off against Rybakina in quarterfinals.
The third quarter – Coco Gauff title defense
The women’s quarters all seem a lot more level, as the regular favorites seem to be struggling. So is Coco Gauff, who has recently been searching for both her forehand and second serve, leaving big holes in her game unfortunately. Her way to a potential quarterfinal runs through Gracheva, Maria or Sierra and then already into a resurgent Elina Svitolina. The Ukrainian is on fire again, as she typically is coming into Grand Slams and seems to be the first real danger to Gauff. Whoever comes out from their matchup, will most likely have to face either Emma Navarro or Marta Kostyuk, who both are vicious opponents on a good day.
The other half of this quarter is headed by Barbora Krejcikova, who hasn’t shown much yet outside of her surprise Wimbledon title. She hasn’t played any of the hard-court tournaments, as has the other top seed here, Maria Sakkari, so this part of draw is hard to guess. Paula Badosa, who would be due for Krejcikova in Round 3, seems like the strongest of players in this quarter as of now, coming from a good run in Cincinnati. So, if she can keep her body healthy enough, she seems like the favorite to face either Gauff or Svitolina in quarterfinals.
The fourth quarter – the strongest of them all?
That leaves us with the last quarter, featuring the World No. 2 (and biggest contender?) Aryna Sabalenka. She recently came back from shoulder injury and won the Cincinnati Masters title. Her draw seems reasonably easy within the first rounds, starting off with Australian qualifier Hon and potentially a second round against the Wimbledon discovery Lulu Sun. Third round might be against Alexandrova, before she might face Madison Keys in the fourth round. The American World No. 14 comes back from injury herself, but surely will be poised to give Sabalenka a hard challenge for a quarterfinal spot.
Whoever gets through this part of the quarter will have to face one of the strongest brackets in my eyes. It all starts with a first-round thriller between Olympic gold medalist Qinwen Zheng and Montreal finalist Amanda Anisimova. Further in this part of the draw, we have Olympic finalist Donna Vekic, World No. 12 Daria Kasatkina, Ukrainian starlet Dayana Yastremska and a few in-shape challengers the likes of Madgalena Frech or Erika Andreeva.
The winner of the Zheng – Anisimova battle seems to be the favorite of this bracket, even though Kasatkina will pose a hard test to anyone on a good day. My guess would be a Sabalenka – Anisimova quarterfinal here, if the level of recent tournaments is kept by the American.
What are your favorite matchups from this draw, and do you also have Sabalenka as the top contender?
