French Open Men’s Quarter-Finals Predictions: Can Djokovic Do It Again?

by Bren Gray

Last Sunday, 128 hopefuls took to the courts of Roland-Garros in an attempt to lift the trophy. Now, just eight remain in contention. With four brilliant men’s quarter-finals set up at the French Open this year, who will move through to the semi-finals?

Can Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner set up the semi-final that everyone predicted at the start of the tournament? Will Novak Djokovic’s body be able to survive his recent heroics? Is Alex de Minaur’s unlikely run going to continue? We answer all these questions and more in our preview and prediction of the upcoming men’s French Open quarter-finals.

Jannik Sinner vs Grigor Dimitrov | Carlos Alcaraz vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur | Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud

Jannik Sinner (2) vs Grigor Dimitrov (10)

Getting men’s quarter-final action underway on Tuesday are Jannik Sinner and Grigor Dimitrov, who meet in the day session on Court Philippe-Chatrier. Here’s how bookmakers are viewing the match:

  • Jannik Sinner @ 1.20 | -500
  • Grigor Dimitrov @ 4.50 | +350

Sinner is a heavy favorite here, with the Italian star owning a 3-1 head-to-head against Dimitrov.

Coming into Roland-Garros as the form player of the year, Sinner has raced his way through the first four rounds. Any questions about his fitness following a hip injury last month have been dispelled, with Sinner dropping just the one set en route to the quarter-finals. He’s looking to win a second career Grand Slam title, having won his first in Melbourne this year.

Dimitrov is also in great form, despite dipping a little in recent months.

The Bulgarian broke his title drought earlier this year, reentering the world’s top 10 for the first time since 2018. His 4-3 record on the European clay heading into Paris wasn’t inspiring, but the 10th seed has been efficient so far. Each of his wins at the French Open have come in straight sets, with the exception of one set dropped against Zizou Bergs. 

Dimitrov is playing well, but simply doesn’t have the game to threaten Sinner. Last time they met–in the Miami final two months ago–the 33-year-old won just four games. He should get a few more than that this time, but don’t expect him to push the No 2 seed too hard. 

Prediction: Sinner in three sets.

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Carlos Alcaraz (2) vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (9)

Next up on Tuesday are Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas (image at the top), lighting up the night session for the second men’s quarter-final. Here’s how bookmakers are predicting this one will unfold:

  • Carlos Alcaraz @ 1.22 | -450
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 4.33 | +333

Alcaraz is a strong favorite, and for good reason: he owns a 5-0 head-to-head against Tsitsipas. 

The Spaniard also came into Roland-Garros with injury concerns surrounding him. These have been put to rest in emphatic fashion, with the third seed racing past all but one of his opponents to date in straight sets. He’s now one of the title favorites at Roland Garros. Only qualifier Jesper de Jong took a set from the 20-year-old, with Alcaraz’s most recent win coming over Felix Auger-Aliassime, 6-3, 6-3, 6-1.

Tsitsipas, on the other hand, came to Paris in red-hot form. The Greek won Monte-Carlo and finaled in Barcelona, making him one of the best clay court players this season. He’s carried on that momentum with four good wins, most recently seeing off the challenge of Matteo Arnaldi in four sets to make the quarter-finals.

We say there’s a chance that Alcaraz could get a little bit of a surprise in this one. He’s had Tsitsipas well and truly dominated across their rivalry, but it feels like about time Tsitsipas fights back. Don’t think he’ll lose, but he might have to fight his way back after an early onslaught.

Prediction: Alcaraz in four or five.

Alexander Zverev (4) vs Alex de Minaur (11)

Wednesday will see fourth seed Alexander Zverev take on Australia’s Alex de Minaur for a spot in the semi-finals. Here’s what bookmakers are saying ahead of their clash:

  • Alexander Zverev @ 1.40 | -250
  • Alex de Minaur @ 3.00 | +200

Zverev has been solid the past 10 days, continuing to build on his momentum from winning Rome a fortnight ago. 

de minaur
Alex de Minaur

The German spoiled the party in his opening match, knocking out 14-time Roland-Garros champion Rafael Nadal. He then raced past David Goffin, before surviving a scare in the third round against Tallon Griekspoor where he went to a deciding set tiebreak. The next match, it was five sets again, with Zverev edging 13th seed Holger Rune.

Not many people would have predicted De Minaur to be in the quarter-finals coming into the 2024 French Open.

The Australian cracked the world’s top 10 for the first time in 2024, beginning the year with three consecutive top 10 victories. He won a title in Acapulco and finaled in Rotterdam, but hasn’t been quite as sharp on the clay. With speed his main weapon, the 25-year-old has to rely on other tactics to prevail on the surface. This tournament, he’s found success, dropping just two sets and most recently overcoming No 5 seed Daniil Medvedev.

Hard to see De Minaur getting past Zverev here. The German is simply too clinical, and rarely loses to players ranked lower than him at Grand Slams. He’s comfortable on the clay, will serve like clockwork, and punish De Minaur’s second serve. The only thing working against Zverev is back-to-back five-setters, so we could see a bit of a dip at some stage.

Prediction: Zverev in four sets.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs Casper Ruud (7)

The last of the men’s quarter-finals at the French Open this year is an intriguing clash between top seed Novak Djokovic and two-time finalist Casper Ruud. Here’s what bookies are saying:

  • Novak Djokovic @ 2.00 | +100
  • Casper Ruud @ 1.80 | -125

Surprisingly, bookmakers actually have 24-time Grand Slam champion Djokovic as the underdog here against the No 7 seed.

casper ruud tennis
Casper Ruud

This is because of what the Serbian has been through to get to this point. Djokovic has just played back-to-back five-set matches, with each lasting four and a half hours, and one ending past 3am local time. In both, Djokovic teetered on the brink of elimination, before fighting back to win. While his resolve has been impressive, the impact this has had on his 37-year-old body is a concern–particularly since he’s said he’s unsure if he’ll play due to a knee injury.

On the other side of the net, Ruud is having a fantastic season. The Norwegian leads the ATP Tour for match wins in 2024, and just picked up his first ATP 500 title in Barcelona last month. While he loves to play here in Paris, this tournament hasn’t been plain-sailing. In the second round he went to five sets, while in his last two matches he’s dropped the second set.

Picking this match is tough, since a lot of it pivots around the unknown of Djokovic’s knee. Based on the Serbian’s track record, he’s perfectly capable of winning a Grand Slam while carrying an injury. His comments post-match were reserved, but not catastrophic either. We think he’ll play, bring a high level and even avoid going the distance this time.

Prediction: Djokovic in four sets.

Think we’ve called these ones correctly? Let us know below! Check our Women’s quarter-final previews here.

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