Mutua Madrid Open 2024, WTA Draw Preview

With Aryna Sabalenka the reigning champion in Madrid and Elena Rybakina recently beating clay maestro Iga Swiatek in Stuttgart; the first clay court WTA Masters 1000 event of the year is set to be an exhilarating tournament, with lots to ponder going into it. Madrid is a unique tournament in that it provides faster than normal conditions for a clay event.

The Spanish city is located at an altitude of 2,130 ft (650m) and is low in humidity; this causes the ball to travel quicker through the air. So do not be surprised if players find it easier to hold serve and win points quicker in Madrid. This theory was proven when we had a surprise package on the men’s side when Jan-Lennard Struff made the final of this tournament. 

Favourites to Win

Aryna Sabalenka  

The Belarusian (image above) had a great start to the year winning her 2^nd grand slam title, defending her Australian Open crown. However; she seemed to then suffer a slump in form after this; failing to reach a quarter final until her most recent tournament at the Stuttgart Open. She would eventually fall to 2023 Wimbledon champion Vondrousova in 3 sets at the quarter final stage. It is worth noting that Sabalenka had some distressing off court news to deal with in the last couple of months or so and this could have understandably affected her on court.

Despite her recent form I would be surprised if she does not make a tournament run. She has fond memories in Madrid as defending champion and the conditions complement her explosive, aggressive style. 

Aryna faces either Cocciaretto or Linette in the 2^nd round (she has a bye in the 1^st round) which should be straight forward for someone of her calibre. The danger women for me in her quarter are Vondrousova, Krejcikova (if fully fit); Paolini and in form Danielle Collins. 

Iga Swiatek 

The Polish number #1 has not hit her extremely high standards so far in 2024. It has not been a poor year by any stretch though; the 22 year old has still won two Master’s 1000 titles (Doha and the recent win at Indian Wells). She recently remodelled her service action (and seen with new racquet) and whether it has been a positive or negative change remains to be seen. Madrid will be a good chance to see if her serve is able to win her a higher % of free points given the quicker nature of the courts.

Iga made the final of Madrid last year, losing in 3 sets to Sabalenka. She will be looking to go one better and take the title on a surface she has an 87% win rate on. There will also be extra motivation for Swiatek to win her first clay court title of 2024; especially given Madrid is one clay event she is yet to win. 

Iga faces either Wang or Bogdan in the 2^nd round (she has a bye in the 1^st round). Her quarter makes good reading for fans of the young superstar. Her draw realistically only looks challenging at the quarter final stage where she could face Maria Sakkari. Other potential banana skins could be Sloane Stephens who recently won in Rouen and Brazilian Haddad Maia. 

Elena Rybakina  

The most in-form player on tour currently is the owner of a brand new Porsche. Elena Rybakina beat Swiatek enroute to the Stuttgart Open and will go into Madrid as arguably the biggest favourite. The Kazakh has surprisingly not had great form in Madrid historically; she lost in her 2^nd round match to Kalinskaya in 2023, fell at the Round of 16 stage to Teichmann in 2022 and lost in the 3^rd round to Mertens in 2021.

Given her form and the conditions in Madrid; it seems that 2024 could be the year she clinches the title, or at least goes deep in Spain. She is in the top 3 most potent servers on tour and an extremely clean hitter from the baseline; these two attributes combined should put her in good stead for a deep run. The biggest question mark will be how does she hold up physically after playing multiple matches in Stuttgart? Elena’s body has struggled at times to hold up so all eyes will be on how she moves in her first match. 

Rybakina faces either Bronzetti or a qualifier in the 2^nd round (she has a bye in the 1^st round). She has been unlucky with a number of draws in the last 12 months or so, but this draw seems kind for the Kazakh. In her quarter she may face challenges from the likes of Kostyuk, Zheng and Kasatkina but she will be a big favourite to make what would be a potentially mouth-watering semi final with Aryna Sabalenka. 

Underdogs 

Danielle Collins 

The American is embarking on the last season of her career; it is shaping up to also be the best season of her career as well. She is currently on a 12 match winning streak which includes Miami Open and Charleston Open titles; it also includes wins over top players in Jabeur, Sakkari and Kasatkina on clay. The blue clay at Charleston does play almost like a hard court but the fast conditions in Madrid will also suit the American’s game. I do not think anyone will want to face Danielle Collins in her current form. A big hitting 4^th round with Sabalenka could be in store for tennis fans; if that materialises you will not want to miss it! 

Emma Raducanu 

Recency bias could have a part to play here I admit. But the Brit showed some top form in her run at the indoor clay courts in Stuttgart. She took Swiatek to a 1^st set tie break and fought valiantly in a competitive straight set loss. I do not think she will compete for the title in Madrid, but I could see a deep run if she is able to replicate what we saw in Germany. Wins over Kerber and especially fellow talent Noskova will have helped her confidence on clay and the conditions in Madrid should suit her aggressive style of play.

The one time she played Madrid she made the Round of 16 in 2021 losing to Kalinina and the one-time grand slam champion will be looking to improve on that result. She faces a tough proposition in hard hitting Karolina Pliskova in the 1^st round; let’s see if she can navigate her way through it and make a run in Spain. 

Mirra Andreeva 

The teenage star made a splash in last year’s edition of this tournament as she made the Round of 16; beating Fernandez, Haddad Maia and Linette before losing to eventual winner Sabalenka. This year she faces experienced Taylor Townsend in the 1^st round, but I see the teenager passing that test. She would then face Noskova in an exciting 2^nd round match up and again with the conditions and surface in Madrid, I think the young Russian will come out victorious.

She will have fond memories of this tournament and I think we will see some of her best tennis in Madrid in what has been an up and down 2024 for her. Could she win the title? Probably not but she could definitely cause some upsets! 

Notable 1^st Round Matches 

• Sloane Stephens vs Martina Trevisan 
• Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova 
• Mirra Andreeva vs Taylor Townsend 

Projected Quarter Finals 

• Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari 
• Coco Gauff vs Ons Jabeur 
• Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina 
• Marketa Vondrousova vs Aryna Sabalenka 

Predictions for the WTA Madrid Open 2024

Go to our guide for the best tennis sportsbooks for odds on the Madrid Open, WTA or ATP matches.

Quarter Finals: 

• Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari 
• Coco Gauff vs Veronika Kudermetova 
• Elena Rybakina vs Daria Kasatkina 
• Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva 

Semi Finals: 

• Iga Swiatek vs Veronika Kudermetova 
• Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka 

Final: 

• Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka 

Winner: 

• Iga Swiatek 

Other resources:

• Madrid Open Travel Tips
• Madrid Open Betting