Who can challenge Carlos in Paris at the 2024 Olympics?

I wanted to make this article as honest as possible, so instead of telling you which players I think could beat Carlos at the Olympics, I am going to tell you why I think no one stands a chance against him over the next two weeks. 

The Olympics are an interesting fixture on the tour calendar, they occur once every four years so are somewhat more mystical than grand slams. Different players seem to put differing levels of importance on the Olympics, but I think overall it carries less weight than the years four major tournaments. The fact that this year’s tournament is on clay throws another spanner in the works as most players have just transitioned from clay to grass. The challenge faced by the players in the draw is going to be adapting their strokes and game styles back to a slower more demanding surface.

Alexander Zverev is one of the favorites at the Olympics and probably the only player within the draw with the conceivable chance of pushing Carlos in Paris. They had an epic five setter at the French Open and Sascha plays well on clay with his unorthodox combination of monster serving and rallying from 3 metres behind the baseline. However, his performance at Wimbledon two weeks ago was disappointing as he bowed out in the fourth round, he also has a small injury cloud hanging over him after a knee issue.

Carlos unstoppable?

All this aside, if Carlos continues his run of form, he’s going to be unstoppable. He has the ability to neutralize the Zverev serve by returning deep behind the baseline and ripping heavy topspin ground strokes. Another edge Carlos has is his ability to demonstrate consistent quality over the course of a two or three hour tennis match. The big German will benefit from the fact that these matches are best of three sets, but I don’t think he’ll be tough enough for Carlos’s brutality and court craft. 

Daniil Medvedev is the 3^rd seed this tournament and although he is an incredible player he doesn’t stand much of a chance against the Carlitos on the Parisian courts. Daniil struggles on clay, he plays extremely flat and suits lower bouncing quick hardcourts. The Russian just doesn’t get enough purchase on his serve when playing on slower grippy surfaces. Playing Carlos in Paris is a terrible match up for Daniil. Alcaraz has in the past completely hit Medvedev off the court, most recently at Wimbledon. The Spaniard will be even more confident on a slower surface, his drop shots and variety will be on full display and would cause some serious trouble for ‘the octopus’. 

Obviously, Novak is always going to be a competitor at the Olympics, however if Wimbledon was any indicator, defeating his new rival on a slower more physical surface is going to be a very tough ask. People seem to have forgotten about the fact that Novak underwent surgery after tearing his meniscus a mere 6 weeks ago. I understand the way he bounced back on the grass, a soft comfortable albeit sometime slippery surface. However, when you mix surgery recovery with the most cruel and taxing surface on the tour, I think it’s quite a different story.

Novak also has a particularly exciting second round match against non-other that Rafael Nadal. What an honour it would be to see the two titans of our sport do battle for potentially the last time, it’s only fitting that this vintage match up takes place at the birthplace of competition, the origin of sport, the Olympic games. Should they meet in the second round the Number 1 seed could be in some serious trouble against his old rival.

So, the stage is set for Carlos to potentially win his third major tournament in a row. I wish everyone in the Olympic draw the best of luck, because as far as I’m concerned Alcaraz is already standing atop that podium with a gold medal around his neck.