Sinner vs Medvedev – ATP Rotterdam Final Prediction & Betting Tips

Betting Preview for Sinner vs Medvedev – ATP Rotterdam Final

Daniil Medvedev produced his best performance of the week in the previous round, defeating Grigor Dimitrov 6-1 6-2 in just 82 minutes. The Russian seems to have finally found his best tennis after a disappointing campaign at the Australian Open, where he lost in the third round to Sebastian Korda.

This is Medvedev’s 5^th career appearance in Rotterdam but the first time that he makes it to the final. The former world no.1 is enjoying the conditions at the Rotterdam Ahoy, losing an average of 2.13 games per set after dropping the first set he played in his opening round match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Looking at Daniil’s numbers this week, his most impressive stat is his return to serve. So far, the 27-year-old from Russia won 52.3% of the points played on his opponents’ serve and generated an average of 1.37 break points per game. Even though the courts in Rotterdam are not the fastest on the tour, these are still very impressive numbers for an indoor hard court tournament.

In the final Medvedev will face Jannik Sinner, one of the most talented young players on the ATP Tour. The 21-year-old Italian is on a seven-match winning streak after claiming the title in Montpellier last week. Despite his young age, Sinner already won four titles on indoor hard court and has an impressive 7-1 career record in finals.

To reach this stage, Sinner defeated the home favorite Tallon Griekspoor in the previous round by 7-5 7-6(5) after one hour and 57 minutes. This was a high-quality contest from both players with Sinner ending the match with 25 winners to just 11 unforced errors. Adding to this, the Italian did not face a single break point and won 82% of the points behind his first serve.

Sinner vs Medvedev Head-to-Head

This will be the 5^th official encounter between these two players with Medvedev leading 4-0 in the head-to-head. Curiously, all their previous meetings were on indoor hard court, with Sinner winning a set in two of his four defeats.

Their most recent meeting was in the quarterfinals of the ATP Vienna in October 2022 where Medvedev won comfortably by 6-4 6-2 to reach the semifinals.

Sinner vs Medvedev Betting Prediction

The sportsbooks are expecting a close contest with Medvedev as the slight favorite to lift the trophy. Despite Sinner’s winning streak and impressive record in finals, it’s hard to ignore the head-to-head between the two players. Medvedev has always been a tough matchup for Sinner, who has yet to find a way to beat the Russian.

This should be a very interesting matchup with Sinner’s firepower contrasting with Medvedev’s exceptional defensive skills. As mentioned before, the courts in Rotterdam are far from the fastest when compared to other indoor hard-court tournaments, which might be an advantage for Medvedev.

Another interesting contrast are the numbers of the two players on serve and return. Sinner has won 93.1% of his service games this week while Medvedev won 57.9% of his return games. This should be the key for this encounter, whether Sinner will be able to keep these numbers on serve or will he struggle against Medvedev’s return game.

Looking at the betting odds for this contest, it’s hard not to take Medvedev. One of the most important aspects in tennis betting is the players matchup and the Medvedev has been a very tough one for Sinner. In addition, all their previous encounters were on these game conditions, making the head-to-head even more relevant.

Medvedev to win seems the most likely result, but the current tennis betting odds on his moneyline don’t seem to offer much value. He’s currently around -161 to win the final, a price that you should find in most of the best sportsbooks for tennis betting.

On the other hand, taking the spread on Medvedev against Sinner it’s also something we don’t recommend, as this match might have some tiebreaks and even a third set. For that reason, our suggestion is to wait for the start of the match, as you should get a better price for Medvedev in play. Also, waiting for the first games you might get a better feel of how Sinner is handling Medvedev’s return game, which has been exceptional so far in Rotterdam.