The US Open is upon us, and many matches are to be played. There are 128 of them in the opening round alone across the two singles events, which means plenty of great value in the US Open betting department. These early rounds rarely go by without surprises, and some pretty good bets are to be spotted here.
Below, we review some high odds bets and why we think they are valuable. From why Novak Djokovic could crash out early, to the case for Jelena Ostapenko (image above) winning the US Open, we cover it all.
Generally, higher odds indicate a lesser chance of something happening, but if there is one sport where higher odds consistently deliver, then it’s tennis. With that said, here are the top high odds bets to consider at the US Open 2024.
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Top 10 High Odds Bets at the US Open
Novak Djokovic to Get Eliminated in the Second Round @ 12.00 | +1100
Right off the bat, we’re starting with a banger: Novak Djokovic getting beaten in the second round. Per the men’s draw, Djokovic is either going to face Laslo Djere or Jan-Lennard Struff in round two. One is far more dangerous than the other, but what Djere lacks in firepower, he has in experience.
The Serbian knows Djokovic well and has played him tough in the past. Last year at the US Open, Djere won two sets against Djokovic, and while he wasn’t able to win that match, it shows that he can play well against him.
It’s far more likely that Djokovic will face Struff in the second round, and the German can beat him. Despite being 0-7 against him all-time, the Struff of the past isn’t like this new Struff. This new Struff is a genuinely good player who has beaten some big names in the past 18 months.
His serve alone can cause plenty of players trouble, and the lighter balls will fly quicker, making it even more tricky to face him. Struff’s ability to mix it up with a strong net game is also an added bonus as to why he might produce the biggest win of his career.
Jelena Ostapenko to Win the US Open @ 81.00 | +8000
Now, you might think this one absurd, but it’s not that far-fetched. What makes this interesting to observe is again, the change in speed of the balls. They’re far lighter and quicker, which, in combination with this year’s faster surface, can cause plenty of problems.
Ostapenko hurts most players with her super aggressive play on return. She just smacks the ball so hard, and she’s incredibly streaky. There is a universe out there where she simply gets hot for a fortnight and smashes everybody in her path (remember the start of this year, when she won two titles in the first five weeks of the season?).
There is not a single player she can’t beat on Tour, and her wins over Jessica Pegula, Aryna Sabalenka, and Iga Swiatek in the past 18 months certainly prove that. She made the quarter-finals last year beating Swiatek along the way, so this isn’t a court she’s unfamiliar with playing well on.
The biggest obstacle for her is obviously the streaky nature of her play, but that’s her strength as well. It’s far more likely that she catches fire than some other players. That makes this a pretty good value bet overall.
Andrey Rublev to Lose in the First Round @ 6.50 | +550
Andrey Rublev has had a really bizarre year. He has played well at times but was mostly disappointing with his lacklustre play. He’s never been the best at Grand Slams in general, and not playing well on the smaller events doesn’t bode well for his US Open chances.
The Russian recently admitted to mental health struggles earlier this year and a long bout with depression, which at least has some impact on his tennis. He did have a good run recently in Toronto, but overall, he’s just played rather underwhelming tennis this year.
That makes him a prime target for Thiago Seyboth Wild, who is a pretty nutty player, in a good sense. He’s a wild card essentially capable of taking out big names at Grand Slams as he did to Daniil Medvedev at Roland Garros last year.
The quicker conditions will help his forehand wreak havoc on Rublev, and with all of his struggles, the Russian does look like a prime candidate to be taken out early at the event.
Frances Tiafoe to Make the Final @ 67.00 | +6600
Frances Tiafoe has a unique ability in tennis. He can make people engaged in his matches as if they’re playing them. This is a rare talent, but it’s a hugely useful talent because it can spark an incredible run.
Two years ago, Tiaofe did that, and it powered him to make the finals of the event. He was barely beaten by eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz, but the run made a huge difference for him. It showed him he could do it.
Enter 2024 Frances Tiafoe, who just had an incredible run at the Cincinnati Masters, making the final. He was beaten there, but don’t underestimate Arthur Ashe and what that court could mean for an African-American player.
Winning on that court would be the greatest thing Tiafoe could accomplish in his career, and he certainly wants it. He has stated this multiple times before, and with this Cincinnati run and the experience from two years ago, doubting that would be foolish.
Maria Sakkari to Lose to Yafan Wang @ 4.33 | +333
Maria Sakkari might have made the semi-final in 2021, but that was a one-off US Open, which Emma Raducanu won. We won’t count that. Our more recent memory of her in New York is losing in the first round of last year’s event against Rebeka Masarova.
This year she’s facing the super solid Yafan Wang, and it’s very much a matchup she might lose. She’s unfortunately become known as a player who often loses matches she shouldn’t lose, and this is another one.
Wang is a consistent player who likes to compete, hits the ball cleanly and generally doesn’t throw away matches. Her form has been solid lately, so she’ll certainly have some things to say.
However, Sakkari and her own demons make this bet a value play. She’s just a player who often fails when she’s expected not to.
Unseeded Finalist in the Men’s Draw @ 7.00 | +600
This is an interesting one because most of the top names are seeded, but there is one with a fantastic record at the US Open who is not seeded. It’s Matteo Berrettini, as the Italian has stood in the semi-final in years past.
He’s been excellent in New York historically due to how the courts play into his strength. The serve and forehand combo is very deadly on courts like these, and with the lighter balls this year, it’s only going to be even more dangerous.
Berrettini might not have played much in the lead-up to this event and was beaten early in Cincinnati, but making the final is certainly not impossible for him. He’s won a couple of trophies this year, so he’s played good tennis.
After all, he’s good enough to need only one or two matches to get back into the swing of things. He is likely to win six of them, finding himself in the final.
Jannik Sinner to Lose Against Mackenzie McDonald @ 23.00 | +2200
Ordinarily, Jannik Sinner wouldn’t lose to Mackenzie McDonald, but these are not ordinary times. The Italian was just announced as a player who tested positive for a banned substance earlier this year, and he found himself under a lot of pressure, mostly because it was kept hush for months.
His level has already suffered in recent months because of the whole saga that was unfolding behind the scenes, which tells us that it can impact him. He now has even more pressure on himself, and there are question marks as to how he will handle it.
Sinner might feel some animosity in the locker room, as some players were furious at the whole thing. He might feel less fan support during matches, and he also might just feel distracted overall.
Distraction is never good, especially when you’re playing a super solid player like McDonald. He was never Federer, but he was always nice and consistent. Good serve, solid groundstrokes, solid at the net, doesn’t get too high or too low. The worst opponent for a distracted player.
Naomi Osaka to Make the Final @ 67.00 | +6600
Now, this one is pretty self-explanatory. Any player who has already won an event is capable of making the final again. In Osaka’s case, there have been two finals and two victories, but the last one was in 2020.
It’s been a long time since then, but she’s just one of the best hard-court players when she finds her best tennis. If she somehow finds it, she can certainly make the final without any problems. The hitting is fairly solid, and the serve is a major weapon, so the ingredients are there. Osaka just needs things to click for her, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that it happens here.
The familiarity she has with New York and the overall scene fits her well. With a few good wins, Osaka could get on a roll that could lead her all the way to the final. At these kind of odds, it is certainly a huge value considering that most players who could do what she can have 10x lower odds for making the final.
Carlos Alcaraz to Hit 10+ Aces Against Li Tu @ 5.00 | +400
Alcaraz is not known as one of the top servers, but the Spaniard has been serving pretty well lately. The Spaniard’s ace percentage has increased each year since he turned professional, with 2024 being his highest.
He’s been serving particularly well recently, and with the speed of the court in New York and the new balls, it should be fairly easy to hit aces. The Spaniard hit seven against Gael Monfils in his most recent match, and it was a quite poor match from him overall.
If he can hit seven while playing poorly in a match against a player who notoriously stands far behind the line and is rather long, he can certainly hit 10 in a match that is a best-of-three at the minimum but could go even beyond that.
Li Tu has played some amazing tennis lately, and he certainly won’t be an easy out for Alcaraz. Because the serve is important in New York, expect him to be quite focused during his service game, and all of that will likely contribute to his exceeding 10 aces.
Aryna Sabalenka to Win the US Open Without Dropping a Set @ 8.00 | +700
Aryna Sabalenka is the number one favorite for the US Open simply because she has played the best tennis recently. The Belarusian just stormed through the Cincinnati Open, beating everybody comfortably to win the trophy.
She served amazingly well during that week, and if she brings the same level to New York, she will certainly cruise through most of her matches. The way Sabalenka is serving makes it very hard to break her, and her hitting has also been very clean lately. It’s just an overwhelming combination that very few players can counter.
She just bested Swiatek in Cincinnati without too many issues, and she also bested Jessica Pegula without any problems. Elena Rybakina hasn’t played much lately, which makes her form questionable, and finally, Coco Gauff has been dreadful.
Sabalenka dropped only two sets in last year’s event, to Madison Keys in the semi-final and Coco Gauff in the final. Given her recent play and the uninspiring competition, she seems a good bet to win the trophy without dropping a single set.
Fancy any of these high odds bets at the US Open 2024? Head over to our betting section or look for some good betting promotions and sign up offers to get your bets in ahead of the first ball on Monday.
