The first big stop of the ATP Tour’s Asian swing is the China Open, which is an ATP 500 event played in Beijing. It’s not the biggest event in China because it’s immediately followed by the Shanghai Masters, but in many ways, it’s a nice prep event for that one.
When is the China Open? 26 September – 2 October, 2024
The China Open is also not the only ATP tournament this week, with the Tokyo Open taking place concurrently. However, it’s still been able to draw some big names such as Sinner, Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev and others. The event being in China is likely what helps it because it gives players a chance to get used to the conditions there. Shanghai and Beijing don’t have the same conditions, but they’re similar enough.
So keep reading to find out everything you need to know about the upcoming tournament in Beijing, including the best odds, favorites and our China Open predictions.
ATP Beijing Odds and Favorites
A total of 32 men will compete in Beijing, but only one can lift the trophy. Who will it be? For context, here’s what the latest bookmaker odds and the tournament’s seeding have to say.
Men’s China Open Betting Odds
- Jannik Sinner @ 2.75 (+175)
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 2.75 (+175)
- Daniil Medvedev @ 6.50 (+550)
- Andrey Rublev @ 12.00 (+1100)
- Grigor Dimitrov @ 15.00 (+1400)
Somewhat expectedly, Sinner and Alcaraz are the top seeds with equal chances of winning the event according to their odds of 2.75 (+175). The rest of the field isn’t close either, as the third favorite, Medvedev, is way behind on 6.50 (+550).
It’s an even bigger gap to the next line of betting, Andrey Rublev, whose odds for winning are quite long at 12.00 (+1100). Overall, it’s pretty clear that tennis betting sites favor the Italian and the Spaniard, which makes sense as they’ve been by far the two best players in the world this year.
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Top Men’s Seeds in Beijing
- Jannik Sinner
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Daniil Medvedev
- Andrey Rublev
- Grigor Dimitrov
- Lorenzo Musetti
- Karen Khachanov
- Alexander Bublik
The China Open event will have eight seeds, simply the players with the highest rankings in the draw. Unlike some other events, there are no byes here, so even the top two seeds, Sinner and Alcaraz, will have opponents in the opening rounds.
If we cross-compare this list with the bookies’ favorites, we’ll see that the top five align exactly.
Betting Tips and Predictions for the ATP China Open
After showing you what the bookies think about this event, here are a few tips on where the proper value lies for those looking to bet on the China Open.
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- Sinner to win
This shouldn’t be highly controversial because, after all, the bookies aren’t amateurs. There is a very good reason why Sinner is favored to win this event, and it’s mostly because he’s been the best player in the past month.
The last time he played was at the US Open, and he easily outplayed everybody there to win the trophy. The Italian lost only two matches on hard courts all year long, so clearly he’s doing something right.
He’s also the defending champion, having won this event last year, and it happened pretty comfortably. His biggest challengers for the trophy are Alcaraz, Medvedev, and Rublev, and each of them can be argued against.
Medvedev hasn’t looked very good lately and will be coming in late from the Laver Cup, so he might need some time to find his best tennis. Alcaraz has the same problems, although he showed a decent level at the Laver Cup.
Rublev has been very up and down this year, though he is one of those two players that beat Sinner on a hard court this year, with the other being Alcaraz.
The Italian will be fully rested and ready to go, which should be enough as he’ll pick up form with every match. Overall, it’s a smart and valuable bet.
- Alcaraz to win
After arguing for Sinner to win the event, let’s flip the script and outline why Alcaraz is an equally solid bet. We don’t like it as much as the Sinner pick because there are obvious holes in the reasoning, but the odds are the same, so let’s do it.
Alcaraz didn’t have a good time in Asia last year, but that should be a motivating factor for him. He also bombed the US Open, which should leave him quite angry about how it went, and we saw some really solid tennis from him at the Laver Cup.
The downside is that he played a lot of tennis in those three days, and coming in so late for the Beijing event might prove a minor problem. He should be able to adapt quickly, though, and after all, it won’t be until the semi-finals that he’ll face some big challenges.
The draw has been quite kind to him. He can only face Sinner in the final, so by that time, he should be ready to go. While not as likely as Sinner winning, he’s the second most likely to win the event.
The question will just be whether he can beat Sinner, and for the odds we’re getting, it’s a gamble worth taking.
- Medvedev to lose in round in the first three rounds
This is more of a bet that you can chase with each round depending on how the draw stacks up. The premise is rather simple—Medvedev hasn’t looked good in a very long time.
The Russian was just at the Laver Cup, losing both of the matches he played there. His level has been all over the place, and while he will try harder in Beijing, he is far from impossible to beat.
Beijing plays slow compared to other events in Asia, and it allows players some flexibility.
It’s also not the type of court he enjoys, even though he plays well on them. After all, he stood in the final last year. Another reason why we’re backing this is the draw. He’s facing Gael Monfils in the first round.
That’s a matchup that has given him some trouble in the past. It doesn’t get easier with either Adrian Mannarino or Lorenzo Sonego in the second round. Both have given him trouble in the past too.
Finally, he might face Bublik in the third round, and that’s another player who can beat him. He should be heavily favored in all of those matches, so you can get some good odds betting against him.
What are your China Open predictions? Let us know in the comments below!
