The final ATP event of the year is upon us, with the ATP Finals taking place from 10-17 November at the Inalpi Arena in Turin, Italy. As it’s been the case for the past few years, the event will be held on indoor hard-courts, with the best eight players of the season fighting it out for the crown of year-end champion.
For the first time in 23 years, there won’t be any member of the Big Three competing. In what feels like the true dawn of a new era of tennis, we will be getting a new champion this year after Novak Djokovic won the event in 2023. Read on for our full preview, including predictions and tips for betting on the ATP Finals.
ATP Finals Odds and Favorites
A total of eight men will compete in Turin, but only one can lift the trophy. Who will it be? For context, here’s what the latest odds from the best tennis betting sites and the tournament’s seeding have to say.
ATP Finals Betting Odds
- Jannik Sinner @ 2.25 (+125)
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 3.00 (+200)
- Alexander Zverev @ 7.50 (+650)
- Daniil Medvedev @ 10.00 (+900)
- Taylor Fritz @ 17.00 (+1600)
- Andrey Rublev @ 21.00 (+2000)
- Alex de Minaur @ 21.00 (+2000)
- Casper Ruud @ 41.00 (+4000)
As expected, the top two favorites at the event are Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Sinner has been on fire recently, winning the Shanghai Masters and the Six Kings Slam, defeating Djokovic and Alcaraz en route.
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Alcaraz won in Beijing where he bested Sinner in the final, but he could have easily lost that match. A ridiculous comeback is the only reason why he won at all. He did win though, so that’s why he’s favored right behind Sinner with odds of 3.00 (+200).
Behind these two, there’s a heavy drop off. Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev are considered moderate chances, while the rest of the bag are at unlikely odds to win.
ATP Finals Groups and Seeds
The eight players who will compete in Turin are spread out in two groups named after legendary players Nastase and Newcombe.
Group Nastase
- Jannik Sinner (1)
- Daniil Medvedev (3)
- Taylor Fritz (5)
- Alex de Minaur (7)
Group Newcombe
- Carlos Alcaraz (2)
- Alexander Zverev (4)
- Andrey Rublev (6)
- Casper Ruud (8)
The groups are interestingly balanced as we can see that the two favorites – Sinner and Alcaraz – are placed in separate groups. Sinner gets Daniil Medvedev, No 5 seed Taylor Fritz, and No 7 seed Alex de Minaur, while Alcaraz will have to navigate No 4 seed Alexander Zverev, No 6 seed Andrey Rublev, and No 8 seed Casper Ruud.
Betting Tips and Predictions for the ATP Finals Turin
Now that we’ve looked at the tennis odds and groups at the ATP Finals, it’s time to lay out some of our predictions. Here’s how we see the season’s final event unfolding:
- Sinner to Win @ 2.40 | +140
This shouldn’t be a huge surprise to anybody because Sinner has been impeccable lately. He’s been head-and-shoulders above the rest of the Tour, with only Carlos Alcaraz actually able to beat him since mid-August.
Even that match was more an outlier than anything else. Sinner played Alcaraz really close there and actually was points away from winning the match, so he can feel unlucky to have not won the event.
Sinner is also the better fit indoors compared to Alcaraz who hasn’t been too brilliant in Turin in past years. Sinner made the final last year and was only defeated by one of those freakish Djokovic performances, so he’s certainly capable of winning this event.
The level he has been showing plus his form recently, combined with the fact that he’s playing on home soil make this event the perfect storm for yet another Sinner victory in 2024.
- Medvedev to Miss the Semi-Final
Medvedev is in many ways expected to finish second in the first group behind Sinner but we think there is a good chance that he doesn’t finish second. The group features him alongside Sinner, Fritz, and De Minaur.
Those are some tough matchups for the Russian who generally hasn’t been in good form. He’s been dominated by Sinner for a while now so that’s likely a loss. Alex de Minaur is capable of beating him and he’s done that in the past so if he loses that one, he’s likely out.
But the main reason we’re confident about this prediction is Fritz. We think Medvedev is a matchup that Fritz will win. The American did really well the last time he played in Turin and he’s an even better player now. So if he beats Medvedev, that very likely means the Russian is out of the running for the semi-final.
- Zverev to win Group B
Zverev recently won the Paris Masters, confirming he’s in really good shape. He’s also done well in Turin in the past, winning the event in 2020. The German’s serve is a major weapon, and considering that his group is not that tough on paper, he might just win it.
Alcaraz is the biggest threat but Zverev can beat him in these conditions. Rublev hasn’t played too well lately, so we expect Zverev to beat him comfortably, while Casper Ruud hasn’t looked that great lately either.
There is a very good chance that Zverev wins all three of those matches but even if he doesn’t, he can still top the group. We think there is excellent value here for anyone looking to bet on the ATP Finals.
Odds taken from our top rated sportsbooks. For this tournament we recommend Betr for AU bettors.
Odds taken from our top rated sportsbooks. For this tournament we recommend PariMatch for UK bettors.
