We are well and truly into the serious end of the US Open in New York this week, with Jack Draper taking on Alex de Minaur in a fascinating quarter-final clash on day 10 of the tournament.
It’s a match up between the top ranked Brit and the best Aussie on Tour, with the prize being a maiden Grand Slam semi-final appearance for the winner. We’ve got a hot take on who will win this one, so read on to find out our Draper vs De Minaur prediction, based on the latest odds from tennis bookmakers.
US Open Day 10 Best Bets
This is an incredibly tough match to call, and it’s largely because of the pressure of the occasion. Draper has never been to this stage of a Grand Slam before, and while De Minaur has made the last eight twice already at majors in 2024, he’s never been the favorite.
As a result, here are the best bets that we see on this US Open day 10 match:
- Four sets total @ 2.50 | +150
- Total games under 39.5 @ $1.91 | -110
- Draper to win 3-1 @ $5.25 | +425
Read on to hear our explanation of why we’ve chosen these betting markets, and why we believe Draper will prevail on Wednesday in New York.
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Draper vs De Minaur Preview
Draper enters his first Grand Slam quarter-final off the back of the most consistent three months he’s ever had on the ATP Tour.
The Brit is 16-5 since May. Over the last three months, he has picked up a maiden ATP-level title in Stuttgart, and collected wins over big names such as Carlos Alcaraz, Matteo Berrettini, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Frances Tiafoe and Felix Auger-Aliassime. He’s now at a career-high of No 25 in the world, and is hunting a maiden Grand Slam semi-final to cap off a brilliant stretch of tennis.
So far in New York, he’s been virtually untouchable. Not only has Draper won each of his four matches in straight sets, but the sets themselves have been dominant. The 22-year-old has dropped just over two games per set on average, losing just 26 games over the 12 sets he’s played.
De Minaur has also had a fairly seamless US Open over the past 10 days. He hasn’t been quite as invincible as Draper, however, dropping sets to Marcos Giron, Dan Evans and Jordan Thompson. There were a few hairy moments in his latest match against Thompson, who was close to forcing a decider, but ultimately De Minaur has escaped going the distance in any of his four matches so far.
Heading into the US Open though, De Minaur’s preparation was very different to Draper’s. The Aussie incurred a hip injury at Wimbledon, which saw him sidelined for six weeks. The US Open is his first tournament back since London, making it quite remarkable that he’s made it to the quarter-finals.
Our betting tips for this match are largely based on the fact that we believe nerves will play a role in at least one man on Wednesday. While we expect Draper to win, it would not be a surprise if he dropped either the opening set, or the third, as the finish line approaches.
The reason why we’re backing Draper to win is because of what Thompson showed us against De Minaur in the round of 16. The Aussie was on top of De Minaur whenever he was able to play aggressive, error-free tennis. That’s exactly what Draper has produced consistently in New York.
Regardless of which way the match goes, we expect it will be done in under 39.5 games. Between them, Draper and De Minaur have played eight matches at the US Open in 2024, only one of which has exceeded 39.5 games. There’s no reason to believe that will change in this clash.
