Wimbledon upset alert: Which women’s seeds could fall early?

It happens every year. The best 32 women are separated out in the Wimbledon draw, so none of them will face each other until the third round at the earliest. And yet, with consistent regularity, a number of seeds fall across the opening two rounds.

Who will it be this year? Which women’s seeds are vulnerable heading into Wimbledon this week? Who will be packing their bags prematurely in London?

We’ve analyzed the women’s draw and come up with five seeds who we believe are at risk of an early exit. Remember, these are called upsets for a reason–they don’t always make complete sense on paper. But the thing we know for sure, is that some of them will happen over the next few days.

Check here for our upset alert for the men’s singles at the Wimbledon.

Five women’s seeds on upset alert at Wimbledon 2024

These are the five women’s seeds we say have a good chance of falling early at SW19 this year:

1. Iga Swiatek (1)

That’s right, we’re predicting top seed Iga Swiatek to crash out of Wimbledon early this year. Sure, it’s a controversial pick, but hear us out, as we say there’s some sound logic to the Pole suffering an early upset in London.

Firstly, Swiatek has made no attempt to hide the lack of importance she puts on the grass season. The world No 1 hasn’t played a match since she won the French Open, and will be making a hard transition straight from clay, to the first round of Wimbledon. Considering these are two utterly contrasting surfaces, this is a big call.

Secondly, Wimbledon is by far Swiatek’s worst Grand Slam. She’s never made it further than the quarter-finals here, and even then, she’s only made the last eight once. Her last four results here read: first round, fourth round, third round, quarter-finals. Not exactly a shining resume, considering she’s won five Grand Slams.

Thirdly, Swiatek faces a dangerous Sofia Kenin in the first round. The American is a former Grand Slam champion, winning the Australian Open in 2020. She holds a 65 percent win rate on grass, making it her best surface. 

While she’s down at No 49 in the rankings currently, Kenin can certainly spring a surprise on an ill-prepared Swiatek on the grass at Wimbledon.

2. Caroline Garcia (23)

Caroline Garcia is a mercurial player, who has a tendency to fall early in Grand Slams. In 14 of her past 21 Grand Slams, Garcia has fallen in the first or second round. Given she was a seed at the majority of these, this is a very poor record for the Frenchwoman. 

It would be no surprise if the world No 23 continues her string of early losses at Wimbledon this year. She’s coming to London off the back of a second-round loss in the French Open, and has fallen early in Wimbledon six times already in her career.

Up first, she’ll play Anna Blinkova, world No 60. Blinkova holds a 2-1 edge in the pair’s head-to-head, having defeated Garcia in their past two meetings. Chances are, she’ll extend that lead to 3-1 this week.

3. Maria Sakkari (9)

Another player who consistently underperforms at Grand Slams is Maria Sakkari. The Greek has lost in the first round of a major on four of the last five occasions–with the only exception being a second round loss at the Australian Open this year.

It’s been almost three years since Sakkari made the semi-finals of a Grand Slam, and over two years since she got through to the second week. 

There’s been little in Sakkari’s season to indicate that she’ll turn this trend around at Wimbledon. The No 9 seed is on a four-match losing streak, including both of her grass court matches so far this season in Berlin and Bad Homburg. Her most recent loss was to a lucky loser ranked No 96 in the world.

Sakkari opens her Wimbledon against qualifier McCartney Kessler. Playing someone who has just won three matches in a row on grass, when you’ve not won in almost two months, is asking for an upset.

4. Jasmine Paolini (7)

Jasmine Paolini rocked into the world’s top 10 off the back of her run to the French Open final last month. However, we say she’ll come crashing back down to earth this week with an early exit at Wimbledon.

We say this for several reasons. Firstly, such performances are a regular occurrence after players have their first big breakthroughs. It’s challenging to handle the added pressure and expectation of being a big seed, which often leads to poor follow up performances.

Secondly, Paolini is a real newcomer on grass. Three weeks ago, she’d never won a match on the surface. This season, she picked up two victories. But still, the Italian is at 2-6 lifetime on grass, having never won a match at Wimbledon. 

Paolini begins her campaign against Sara Sorribes Tormo, with a possible second round against either Greet Minnen or Heather Watson. Any of these three is more than capable of taking down an undercooked Paolini on grass.

5. Ekaterina Alexandrova (22)

Ekaterina Alexandrova is the final seed we predict has a reasonable chance of being upset at Wimbledon this week. The Russian is in decent form, and likes playing on grass. Trouble is, she’s coming up against a red-hot Emma Raducanu in the first round, who will have the full force of a British crowd behind her.

Raducanu has had a patchy last few years since winning the US Open, and needed a wildcard to make the main draw of Wimbledon. However, she’s been in sharp form on grass this year, and poses a real threat to the rest of the draw.

Over the last few weeks, Raducanu has made the semi-finals of the Nottingham Open and quarter-finals of the Eastbourne International. Both of her wins in Nottingham were impressive straight set victories, and it took Katie Boulter to upset her in a deciding set in the semi-finals. While she fell a step earlier in Eastbourne, along the way Raducanu picked up the scalp of No 2 seed Jessica Pegula, who has been playing brilliantly this grass season.

What do you think? Can Swiatek make it through her first-round clash against Kenin? Will Raducanu cause an upset in front of her home crowd? Let us know in the comments below.