Part two of the Sunshine Double kicks off this week, with the Miami Open unfolding over the next 12 days. Both the ATP and WTA Tours are in action with 1000 ranking points on the line in the last of the big hardcourt events before Europe’s clay. Read on for a breakdown of both draws, with a quarter-by-quarter analysis of seeds, matches to watch and potential upsets. Check also our betting guide for the Miami Open.
ATP Miami Open draw
A total of 96 men will fight it out for the Miami Open title over seven rounds, with the top 32 seeds getting byes straight into the second round. Here’s how we expect it will unfold.
Quarter one
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (1)
- Jack Draper (6)
- Holger Rune (11)
- Frances Tiafoe (16)
- Arthur Fils (17)
- Tomas Machac (20)
- Alexei Popyrin (25)
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (28)
Matches to watch
- Arthur Fils vs Tallon Griekspoor (second round)
- Jack Draper vs Jakub Mensik (second round)
Top seed Alexander Zverev heads up quarter one of the men’s draw, with a minefield of opposition awaiting him if he’s to snap his poor run in 2025. The German had a prime chance to clinch the world No 1 spot with Jannik Sinner banned for three months, but instead has failed to string together back-to-back wins since Melbourne.
The likes of Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Arthur Fils and Jack Draper lie between him and the final weekend of the Miami Open. Fils has gone the distance with Zverev in their last three meetings, winning one, while Mpetshi Perricard has a devastating serve and Draper is a newly minted member of the world’s top 10 following his Indian Wells title.
Recent Indian Wells finalist Holger Rune also lurks in this quarter, as well as mercurial American Frances Tiafoe and the dangerous Tomas Machac.
It’s hard to pinpoint how this one will unfold. Rune and Draper backing up from last week would be surprising, while Zverev continuing to lose would also be a shock. There are plenty of ways Zverev could botch this one, but we have to back him to come right here.
Our prediction: Zverev beats Machac
Quarter two
Seeds
- Taylor Fritz (3)
- Andrey Rublev (8)
- Alex de Minaur (10)
- Ben Shelton (13)
- Ugo Humbert (19)
- Hubert Hurkacz (21)
- Denis Shapovalov (27)
- Matteo Berrettini (29)
Matches to watch
- Joao Fonseca vs Learner Tien (first round)
- Kei Nishikori vs Yoshihito Nishioka (first round)
Taylor Fritz exited the Indian Wells Open early at the hands of eventual champion Jack Draper, and will be looking to make amends in quarter two of the Miami Open draw this week.
The American has a comfortable quarter, avoiding any of the big names with Alex de Minaur likely to be his biggest challenge. The Aussie just dropped out of the world’s top 10, and will be eager to right that with a deep run here.
Andrey Rublev also sits in this quarter, though the Russian has been uninspiring recently. Outside of this, there are a raft of players who can catch fire, or lose first round – Denis Shapovalov, Ugo Humbert, Matteo Berrettini, Ben Shelton. Anyone of these, with a few wins under their belt, would be a scary prospect in the quarters.
Throw in two of the game’s most exciting teenage prospects – Joao Fonseca and Learner Tien – and this is an intriguing quarter. No huge star power, but plenty of different ways it could unfold. We see Fritz out-soliding the pack though.
Our prediction: Fritz beats de Minaur
Quarter three
Seeds
- Novak Djokovic (4)
- Daniil Medvedev (7)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (9)
- Lorenzo Musetti (15)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (18)
- Sebastian Korda (24)
- Jiri Lehecka (26)
- Alex Michelsen (32)
Matches to watch
- Novak Djokovic vs Hamad Medjedovic (second round)
All eyes were on where 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic would fall in the Miami Open draw. Courtesy of some last minute reshuffling in the ATP’s top 10, the Serbian gets a quarter to himself and avoids Carlos Alcaraz for once.
Djokovic is seeded to meet Daniil Medvedev in the quarters, however, with the Russian having found good form in Indian Wells. Two years ago you would have bet the house that these two would make the final eight, but now, it’s far less certain.
There are several injury-prone young players in this quarter too – Sebastian Korda, Jiri Lehecka, Alex Michelsen – any of which could go deep if they are in the right condition or at least cause an upset. Stefanos Tsitsipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime have shown renewed form the past two months as well.
We like Medvedev to make the quarters because of his draw – he matches up well against Lehecka and Tsitsipas, his biggest threats along the way. Djokovic, we’re not so sure about – chances are he’ll get upset, then the assured Lorenzo Musetti will capitalize.
Our prediction: Medvedev beats Musetti
Quarter four
Seeds
- Carlos Alcaraz (2)
- Casper Ruud (5)
- Tommy Paul (12)
- Grigor Dimitrov (14)
- Karen Khachanov (22)
- Francisco Cerundolo (23)
- Alejandro Tabilo (30)
- Brandon Nakashima (31)
Matches to watch
- Casper Ruud vs Miomir Kecmanovic or Aleksandar Kovacevic (second round)
- Nick Kyrgios vs qualifier (first round)
Rounding out the men’s draw, Carlos Alcaraz gets a largely danger-free quarter in Miami. The 21-year-old will be looking to make amends for his first loss at Indian Wells in three years, so we expect something of a revenge trail here.
Tommy Paul is the only player likely to threaten Alcaraz because of their match up. Outside of him, we expect Ruud to lose early given he takes on the in-form Aleksandar Kovasevic or Miomir Kecmanovic in his opener. Nick Kyrgios is in this quarter too, but given what we’ve seen of him this year, is more of a novelty than a genuine opponent on court at this stage.
Our prediction: Alcaraz beats Paul
Final weekend predictions for men’s Miami Open
- Semi – Fritz beats Zverev
- Semi – Alcaraz beats Medvedev
- Final – Alcaraz beats Fritz
Fritz has had Zverev’s number the past year, beating the German in all four of their meetings in 2024. Given Zverev’s poor form coming into Miami, and Fritz’s home advantage, it’s tough to bet against the American making it five in a row.
Likewise, Alcaraz has won four on the bounce against Medvedev. The Russian hasn’t looked himself on a hardcourt for over a year, and while we think he’s playing well, it takes something special to knock over Alcaraz.
We don’t think Fritz will have that in the final either, with Alcaraz storming to the title to compensate for the pain of losing in California.
WTA Miami Open draw
The women’s event in Miami follows the same format as the men’s, with a 96-player draw over seven rounds, with the top 32 seeds getting byes into the second round. Here’s our analysis:
Quarter one
Seeds
- Aryna Sabalenka (1)
- Elena Rybakina (7)
- Qinwen Zheng (9)
- Danielle Collins (14)
- Yulia Putintseva (19)
- Donna Vekic (21)
- Leylah Fernandez (26)
- Magda Frech (29)
Aryna Sabalenka will be thanking the tennis gods for what is a very straightforward quarter in Miami. She avoids any majorly in-form unseeded players, and should walk into the quarter-finals here.
Her only speed bump could be Danielle Collins, who has dropped off in form from this time last year but still has the potential to bring a high level intermittently. Even so, it’s hard to see her stopping Sabalenka.
The same goes for Qinwen Zheng and Elina Rybakina, who are the two highest seeds in this quarter other than the Belarusian. Both can challenge on their good days, but there haven’t been enough of these recently to look anywhere other than Sabalenka in this quarter.
Our prediction: Sabalenka beats Rybakina
Quarter two
Seeds
- Coco Gauff (3)
- Jasmine Paolini (6)
- Daria Kasatkina (12)
- Beatriz Haddad Maia (16)
- Ekaterina Alexandrova (18)
- Liudmila Samsonova (24)
- Maria Sakkari (28)
- Ons Jabeur (31)
Matches to watch
- Coco Gauff vs Sofia Kenin (second round)
- Liudmila Samsonova vs Naomi Osaka (second round)
Surely this is the moment that Coco Gauff nips her poor form in the bud and makes a deep run. The 21-year-old loves Floridian conditions, and has a nice soft quarter where she can develop some momentum. That is, if she can get past Sofia Kenin in her opener.
The pair share a 2-2 head-to-head, with Kenin a past Grand Slam champion that loves to lurk unseeded and spoil draws. We expect Gauff will get through a tough one here, then springboard into the last four.
Our prediction: Gauff beats Kasatkina
Quarter three
Seeds
- Jessica Pegula (4)
- Emma Navarro (8)
- Mirra Andreeva (11)
- Diana Shnaider (13)
- Amanda Anisimova (17)
- Marta Kostyuk (23)
- Linda Noskova (30)
- Anna Kalinskaya (32)
Matches to watch
- Emma Navarro vs Emma Raducanu (first round)
- Mirra Andreeva vs Veronika Kudermetova (second round)
This is perhaps the most interesting of the women’s quarters in Miami. Seed-wise, the two big names are Americans Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro, both of whom would desperately like a deep run here.
But outside of these two, there are several big-hitting youngsters that could be a genuine threat in Diana Shnaider, Amanda Anisimova and Linda Noskova. Oh and let’s not forget the youngest of them all, back-to-back WTA 1000 champion Mirra Andreeva.
We don’t think Andreeva has the steam for another title here. For us, it’s a toss up between one of the Shnaider/Anisimova/Noskova going on a run, or one of the Americans playing consistently and getting through.
Our prediction: Pegula beats Anisimova
Quarter four
Seeds
- Iga Swiatek (2)
- Madison Keys (5)
- Paula Badosa (10)
- Karolina Muchova (15)
- Clara Tauson (20)
- Elina Svitolina (22)
- Jelena Ostapenko (25)
- Elise Mertens (27)
Matches to watch
- Victoria Mboko vs Camila Osorio (first round)
- Victoria Azarenka vs Karolina Muchova (second round)
Quarter four of the women’s draw is a tough one. Iga Swiatek heads it up, but has the likes of Madison Keys, Paula Badosa and Elina Svitolina to contend with. Fast-rising teen Victoria Mboko also lurks, fresh off an ITF title, while the mercurial Jelena Ostapenko can never be discounted.
There will more than likely be upsets in this quarter, but on the balance of probability, we expect to see Badosa get through to take on Swiatek in the quarters. Given how shaky the Pole has been in bigger matches lately, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Badosa get the better of her in this one.
Our prediction: Badosa beats Swiatek
Final weekend predictions for women’s Miami Open
- Semi – Gauff beats Sabalenka
- Semi – Badosa beat Pegula
- Final – Badosa beats Gauff
Gauff has a strong head-to-head against Sabalenka, beating her in five of their nine meetings including their most recent. With a home crowd and a bit of momentum, she should be able to take out a tired Sabalenka.
Should Badosa make it to the final four, we simply see her being too good for Pegula. The Spaniard’s aggression makes her a tough-beat for Pegula’s baseline game.
In a final between Gauff and Badosa, we side with the latter. She beat Gauff earlier this year, leads their match up 4-3, and is a big-time momentum player who will be very challenging to stop this late in the tournament.
Head over to our tennis betting guide if you want to place a bet on the tournament.
