Dimitrov vs Bublik – ATP Marseille Prediction & Betting Tips

Betting Prediction for Dimitrov vs Bublik – ATP Marseille

Alexander Bublik arrived at the Marseille Open on a 10-match losing streak and lacking confidence in his game. Currently ranked outside the top 50 after his slow start of the season, Bublik was desperate for a positive result in Marseille after couple of close defeats in the previous weeks. The 25-year-old lost a five-set thriller against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the Australian Open and a third-set tiebreak against Gregoire Barrere in Montepellier.

Despite his poor results in recent weeks, Bublik has played some impressive tennis this week in Marseille. In the opening round he fought back from a set down to defeat Filip Krajinovic 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 and end his 10-match losing streak. Bublik then continued his good form on this event, defeating Gregoire Barrere 6-4, 6-2 in just 64 minutes.

Known as one of the most entertaining players on tour, Bublik can play some very high quality tennis on indoor hard court. The Kazakh is a former semifinalist in Marseille and is looking to reach that stage of the tournament once more. Bublik serve was absolutely dominant in the previous round against Barrere, winning 92.59% of the points behind his first serve and not facing a single break point.

In the quarterfinals Bublik will face Grigor Dimitrov, who has yet to win a title since his victory at the Nitto ATP Finals in 2017. The former world no.3 has enjoyed a good start of the season, losing only to Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev in his previous two ATP tournaments this year. Dimitrov is one of the highest ranked players in Marseille and knows this is a great opportunity to finally win a title, especially after Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal from the event.

Looking now at Dimitrov’s campaign so far in Marseille, the no.4 seed got off to a flying start with a 6-3, 6-2 victory over Gijs Brouwer in just 66 minutes. The Bulgarian saved all three break points he faced and dropped just three points with his first serve to reach his second consecutive quarterfinals of the season. Last week Dimitrov made it to the semifinals in Rotterdam, losing to eventual champion Daniil Medvedev in two sets.

Dimitrov vs Bublik Head-to-Head

These two players will face each other for the fifth time in their careers with a 2-2 tie in their head-to-head. Bublik won their first two meetings while Dimitrov got his revenge in their last two encounters, the last one at the Indian Wells Masters last year.

Even though Dimitrov and Bublik already faced each other four times, this will be their first ever meeting on indoor hard court.

Dimitrov vs Bublik Betting Prediction

The sportsbooks are expecting a victory from Dimitrov with the Bulgarian as the favorite to get the win at around -238 in the best tennis betting sites. Although we understand the reason behind Dimitrov’s betting odds, it’s hard to find any value on his current price.

On the other hand, Bublik presents a great betting opportunity, especially after his display against Barrere in the previous round. The Kazakh played one of his best matches in a long time, barely losing points on serve and not hitting a single double fault, which is a great indicator of his mindset. Bublik also knows that there is no margin for error after so many defeats if he wants to get back into a good position in the ranking.

Despite Dimitrov’s undeniable quality, it won’t be easy for him to break Bublik’s serve on this match. The court conditions in Marseille are quite fast, making it a very good tournament for big servers such as Bublik.

It’s true that Bublik can always disconnect from the match after a bad call or an argument with the umpire, but he seemed with a great mindset in the previous rounds. Adding to this, Dimitrov has also struggled in the final stages of tournaments in recent years and he knows he’s the favorite to win this one.

Having said that, the value is clearly on Bublik to get the win here and his moneyline is a very interesting approach at +206. Besides this betting tip, you can also go for a safer option with the +1.5 set handicap, which is available around -137. Nevertheless, we believe the true value is on Bublik’s moneyline and we’ll go with the underdog to get the win on this one.

Betting Tip: Bublik to defeat Dimitrov at +206