Favorites and Dark Horses for the Women’s Tennis Olympics

Tennis fans, brace yourselves! This year, there’s no lull between Wimbledon and the US Open. With the Olympics taking place in Paris this weekend, the best of the best in women’s tennis will be heading straight back to Roland-Garros to compete for Olympics gold.

Can Iga Swiatek keep her winning streak alive on clay and claim the highest honors in her maiden Olympic games? Or will Jasmine Paolini make it third-time lucky in big finals over the past two months? What about the quartet of American women, can any of them secure a medal?

We’ll break down all there is to know about the women’s singles event at the 2024 Paris Olympics. From seeds, to betting odds, favorites and dark horse predictions, ahead of the first serve this weekend.

Also, check out our article on favorites and dark horses for the men’s olympics.

Women’s Olympics Tennis Seeds

Ahead of our predictions, here’s a look at the top eight seeds in Paris this year:

1. Iga Swiatek (Poland)
2. Coco Gauff (United States)
3. Elena Rybakina (Kazakhstan)
4. Jessica Paolini (Italy)
5. Jessica Pegula (United States)
6. Qinwen Zheng (China)
7. Maria Sakkari (Greece)
8. Danielle Collins (United States)

These are the eight women who will begin with an advantage at the Olympics, and are ensured not to meet until the quarter-final stage. But do tennis bookmakers agree?

Women’s Olympics Tennis Odds

Here are what the bookies say about the women’s singles at the Olympics tennis in Paris: 

• Iga Swiatek @ 1.50 | -200
• Coco Gauff @ 6.50 | +550
• Elena Rybakina @ 11.00 | +1000
• Marketa Vondrousova @ 15.00 | +1400
• Naomi Osaka @ 17.00 | +1600
• Mirra Andreeva @ 17.00 | +1600
• Jasmine Paolini @ 21.00 | +2000
• Danielle Collins @ 21.00 | +2000

No surprises here, Poland’s Swiatek is a heavy favorite. The 23-year-old leads the pack by a country mile, paying just 1.50 (-200) to win at Roland-Garros in early August.

Behind her, there’s a big gap, with America’s Coco Gauff coming in at 6.50 (+550) and second favorite. Elena Rybakina is third, with odds already lengthening greatly to 11.00 (+1000) for the Kazakh to win gold.

The remainder of the field have to be considered outside chances at best of winning gold. Marketa Vondrousova has her nose marginally in front at 15.00 (+1400), while former No 1 Naomi Osaka and teen star Mirra Andreeva are level on 17.00 (+1600). Recent French Open and Wimbledon finalist Jasmine Paolini rounds out the top eight alongside Danielle Collins, both returning 21.00 (+2000) for gold.

Favorites to Win the Women’s Tennis Olympics 

That’s about seeding and tennis betting, but what about our expert predictions? Here are the three women we say you should have an eye on in Paris this weekend, and why..

Iga Swiatek

We can’t argue with the bookies’ odds here: Swiatek is an overwhelming favorite to win gold in Paris this year. The 23-year-old has stunning credentials when it comes to clay court tennis, particularly at Roland-Garros, which is where this year’s Olympics is being played.

The Pole has won four of the last five French Opens, including the last three in a row. That means she’s on a 21-match winning streak in Paris. She’s also won 19 matches in a row on clay in general, dating back to the semi-finals of Stuttgart in mid-April where she lost to Elena Rybakina in three sets.

This kind of form is no fluke. Swiatek’s play style is perfectly designed for clay court tennis–she’s an aggressive baseliner, with a brutal, heavy topspin forehand that can dismantle anyone’s game. It’s hard to bet against her in Paris.

Coco Gauff

Another player with a game built for clay is America’s Coco Gauff. The 20-year-old has previously made a French Open final, and comes into Paris as the second seed, guaranteed not to meet Swiatek until the final.

Gauff’s win percentage is 72.3% on clay, her highest of any surface. The American is a natural athlete, with a brilliant defensive game that sees her chase down the most unlikeliest of balls. This ability is only magnified on clay. 

She’s 9-2 in her last 11 matches on clay, making the semi-finals of Rome and Roland-Garros, and is a great option to win gold, should Swiatek stumble.

Jasmine Paolini

This time last year, few would have put Jasmine Paolini’s name in the mix for a medal at the Olympics. Bookmakers are still reluctant to do so, listing her as seventh favorite to win gold in Paris.

However, the Italian’s recent form demands that she be considered a favorite this week. No player has been more consistent than Paolini over the past two months, with the 28-year-old making the finals of both the French Open and Wimbledon. This form gets her nose into the fourth seed position at the Olympic Games, and could well bag her a medal if it continues.

Women’s Tennis Olympics Dark Horses

Betting on the favorites might be sensible, but it sure isn’t fun. Here are a few options to win the women’s singles at the tennis Olympics that are riskier, but could wind up being far more lucrative if they come to fruition.

Jelena Ostapenko

Jelena Ostapenko is the perfect dark horse at this year’s Olympics. The Latvian is as mercurial as it gets, with her ultra-aggressive style of play leading her to either win big, or lose early. 

Some will forget that Ostapenko is a former French Open winner, claiming the title way back in 2017. She comes into Paris off the back of a Wimbledon quarter-final run, and has already bagged two singles titles this year. 

Sure, she could bomb out in the first round to a low-ranked player. But she could also beat Swiatek for the loss of only a few games in the round of 16 and go all the way to claim gold.

Caroline Garcia

Speaking of players who run hot and cold, Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia is another dark horse to keep an eye on. She’s in the twilight of her career now, but in front of a French crowd, could well make a deep run.

Garcia is a former world No 4, a Roland-Garros quarter-finalist and has won three titles on clay. This year alone, she’s defeated two of our favorites, taking down Gauff in Miami and Paolini in the United Cup. This is clear evidence that she has a gold medal run within her. Whether or not she’ll put it together on the court is another question, but with a return of 51.00 (+5000), it’s worth a wager.