With the US Open behind us, the tennis season is entering its final stretch. Traditionally, this part of the year has been notorious for some unsuspecting players making huge breakouts.
There are several reasons why we can expect one or two players to finish the 2024 season strongly. At this stage of the calendar, there are more injuries, fatigue and players falling low on motivation. This opens up the door for others to thrive.
Some players who had tremendous finishes to the year in recent seasons include Rune, who won Stockholm and the Paris Masters in 2022 while making the Basel final as well. Felix Auger-Aliassime also had a superb finish that same year, winning Florence, Antwerp, and Basel before bowing out of the Paris Masters in the semi-final. Last year it was Jannik Sinner, who went on a post-US Open tear that laid the foundation for his incredible 2024 season.
But who will it be this year? Read on for the five players that we expect will finish the 2024 season strongest.
- Jack Draper
Britain’s Jack Draper is perfectly primed for a strong finish to the year by our estimation. There are a couple of reasons, but mostly his experience playing indoors is what has us expecting a big finish from the 22-year-old.
As somebody from Britain, indoor tennis is nothing strange for Draper. He’s been playing indoor tennis for a very long time, and his career record indoors shows that. Across all levels, he has an 80-30 indoor win-loss record, including a 15-3 mark last year and a 26-8 mark the year before.
His skillset is also really well suited for indoor tennis, with a powerful serve and lefty forehand. Draper also just had a major breakout at the US Open, making the semi-finals, which should be a huge confidence boost for him.
Draper has always been a really solid player but has struggled greatly with his health in the past. This year, he’s much better on that front. If Draper remains healthy and continues playing as well as he can, he’s set for a strong finish.
In fact, he’s actually in contention to finish the year in the top 10. With this in the back of his mind, he’s certainly going to be motivated to finish strong. He’ll play a lot as well, because this is the part of the season where he knows he can pick up points. With his recent performances, we think he’s ready to do so.
- Ben Shelton
Ben Shelton emerged as a tremendous player last year, winning his maiden trophy in Tokyo and making the US Open semi-final. The American has stabilized and shown more consistency in 2024, and his indoor game has always been huge.
He didn’t play superbly well indoors last year in Europe, but he has done really well in the past. Back home in the US, Shelton was a menace indoors, and it makes sense. He’s got a massive serve, which is a huge problem for many players.
That serve alone is enough to push him past most players, but he’s got the skills as well. He goes to the net often, which is a solid tactic as well. After all, his indoor record is 34-8 across all levels, a pretty handy success rate.
Shelton just recently proved his talent by beating Daniil Medvedev indoors at the Laver Cup, so he’s certainly a player that could do some damage in the final months of the season. Speaking of team events, as part of the US Davis Cup Team, Shelton is guaranteed to stay locked in and pursuing his top level all the way until November.
The American has never had problems with motivation, and just a chance to finish strongly will be enough for him to give it his all.
- Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul is yet another American who has been doing tremendous stuff this year. 2024 has been his best year ever as he’s won 38 matches so far on the ATP Tour, which makes him a good candidate to finish with above 50 wins this year, a career-high mark if it comes true.
Paul showed tremendous promise against some of the best players in the world and is generally playing the most consistent tennis he’s ever played. That makes him a huge danger indoors.
Indoors is where he won his maiden ATP trophy, which happened in Stockholm a few years ago. He’s got a 52-32 career record overall indoors and the skillset to be a dominant force in those conditions.
The massive serve and the superb hitting from the baseline make him very dangerous in the somewhat quicker conditions, which are not impacted by wind or anything like that. Having a career year means he’s booming with confidence, and there should be no shortage of motivation.
Paul is currently 11th on the ATP Race to Turin, which means he’s in contention for the ATP Finals, and having never played there, it’s definitely a goal for him. All of that is likely to contribute to him having a really good finish to the season.
- Grigor Dimitrov
Another player who could finish strongly is Grigor Dimitrov. He’s been one of the most consistent tennis players this year, with an impressive 38-14 record. He’s been really good this year, possibly the best since his peak when he was world No 3.
The Bulgarian is no stranger to playing indoors either and has had some tremendous performances in those conditions in the past. What makes us back him in particular is the chance to make the ATP Finals.
Dimitrov is currently 10th in the ATP race to Turin, and there is no way he’s going to mail it in with the chance of playing in Turin. At 33, this might be one of his last chances to find himself there, and he’s going to push for it.
With the way he’s played this year, the historic track record indoors with over 100 wins in those conditions, and a very good chance to find himself in Turin, the Bulgarian is likely to push really hard.
Motivation is half the battle, as we know, so a motivated top 10-level talent who has played some of the best tennis of his life this year is a safe bet to back when it comes to a strong finish to the year.
- Jannik Sinner & Carlos Alcaraz
Now this is simply due diligence because we can’t really speak about strong finishes to the year without mentioning these two players. Both of them have been exceptional this year, winning two Grand Slams apiece.
They’re also probably the top two players we have in the world, so just on that alone, they will be expected to finish strongly. Both have an added motivation because the No 1 rank is up for grabs, and whoever does best over the next two months will likely finish the year as world No 1.
A couple of big trophies are up for grabs as well, with two Masters events plus the ATP Finals. Another thing that needs to be mentioned is that both signed up for the Davis Cup in November.
That means that both will be playing until then, unlike somebody like Djokovic, who basically said that he’ll barely play in the coming weeks. Playing is a prerequisite to doing well, so that’s another reason.
Both have also shown solid promise indoors, though Sinner has a far better track record as he had a tremendous finish to the year last year as well. In any case, keep an eye out for these two.
