What began with 128 women just 13 days ago has now been whittled down to just two: Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka, who meet in the final of the US Open this Saturday.
Can Pegula reverse the beatdown she received at Sabalenka’s hands just three weeks ago? Or will the Belarusian continue her domination in New York and lift a third Grand Slam trophy? We breakdown all there is to know about this clash, outlining our Pegula vs Sabalenka prediction, complete with betting tips using the latest odds.
US Open Day 13 Best Bets
We’re predicting that Sabalenka will win the US Open, but there will be a twist. Here are our recommended bets:
- Sabalenka to win @ 1.36 | -275
- Sabalenka to win and over 20.5 games @ 2.60 | +160
- Sabalenka 2-1 @ 3.50 | +250
Want to bet on the match? We recommend PariMatch for UK bettors.
Want to bet on the match? We recommend FanDuel or DraftKings for US bettors.
Interested to hear about this twist? Read on.
Pegula vs Sabalenka Preview
The argument for Sabalenka winning this match is very strong.
Firstly, the pair played in similar conditions just three weeks ago. That was the final of the WTA 1000 in Cincinnati, and Sabalenka won it in dominant fashion, 6-3, 7-5. She also leads their head-to-head 5-2, with each of her victories coming in straight sets.
Sabalenka is the more experienced player as well, at this level. The Belarusian will be contesting her fourth Grand Slam final, having made it to this stage of the US Open last year to go with her two Australian Open titles. For Pegula, until this week, she had never made it beyond the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam.
Both are in great form though. Sabalenka is riding an 11-match win streak now, encompassing her Cincinnati title run plus six wins here in New York. During this time, she’s taken down the likes of Iga Swiatek and Qinwen Zheng in straight sets. Pegula, on the other hand, is 15-1 in her last 16 matches, having won the WTA 1000 in Toronto, made the final of Cincinnati, and now the championship match in New York.
Won’t be a straightforward win
While we expect Sabalenka’s form and dominance of their head-to-head to prevail on Saturday, we don’t think it will be as straightforward as many are predicting.
In Sabalenka and Pegula’s last match, the Belarusian struggled to close out the final, barely hanging on for a 7-5 win in the second set. The same happened in her semi-final against Emma Navarro, where she blew a comfortable lead and had to take the set in a tiebreak instead.
Pegula was the opposite against Karolina Muchova. She found herself down a set and a break, and facing break point, yet clawed her way back to win the match.
This makes betting on a 2-1 win to Sabalenka, and the match to go over 20.5 games, a smart bet. Sabalenka may well dominate again, but as she’s shown in the past, nerves can creep in. With a Grand Slam title on the line, it would be no surprise if that happens here, and she drops a set, or at least extends beyond the 20.5 game threshold again.
Comment below, what is your pick for the final?
